3 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dovish central banks as trade war risk lingers.
Greenback retraced from its prior high levels as trade optimism fades while investors await the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report due this Friday. The dollar index was quoted down 0.11% to 96.26 as of writing. In a quiet economic calendar for the US, investors shifted their focus upon the US jobs report which may provide further signal with regards to Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. In the event of a disappointing reading, it will likely clarify the case for an interest rate cut during Fed’s policy meeting at the end of the month. Likewise, global central banks have dialed down their economic projections while delivering rate cuts in order to curb slowing global growth and trade war uncertainty. In a recent speech delivered by Bank of England governor Mark Carney, he backed away from his prior bullish stance while stating that global trade tension risks continues to surround the market. He added that uncertainty over global economic growth may warrant for a near-term policy response, thus increasing the speculation for a rate cut in order to support Britain’s economic expansion. Pair of GBP/USD slumped 0.02% to 1.2596 during Asian treading session.
As for commodities market, crude oil price recovered its losses by 0.53% to $56.46 per barrel. Oil prices slumped more than 3% on yesterday over fears that a slower global economic growth may lead to a lower demand for crude oil in the near-term. Likewise, traders have fully digested the fact that OPEC will extend their production cut and thus initiating profit-taking from prior high levels. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.65% to $1,427.73 a troy ounce due to higher chances for a rate cut from the Fed later this month.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
Early close 01:00 USD Independence Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Services PMI (Jun) | 55.6 | 55.6 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Jun) | 51.0 | 51.0 | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) | 27K | 140K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 227K | 220K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 56.9 | 56.1 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jun) | 58.1 | – | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -12.788M | -2.964M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 96.35. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 96.35, 97.05
Support level: 95.80, 95.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2630, 1.2670
Support level: 1.2575, 1.2515
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.1275. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 1.1345.
Resistance level: 1.1345, 1.1380
Support level: 1.1275, 1.1210
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 107.70. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 107.70.
Resistance level: 108.30, 108.50
Support level: 107.70, 107.30
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher levels. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 0.7005, 0.7040
Support level: 0.6960, 0.6900
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 0.6655. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.6710.
Resistance level: 0.6710, 0.6765
Support level: 0.6655, 0.6590
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior closure below the support of 1.3120. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.3050.
Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3220
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2970
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 0.9890. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 0.9835.
Resistance level: 0.9890, 0.9970
Support level: 0.9835, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout from the lower level of the channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower, towards the direction of 55.70.
Resistance level: 57.25, 58.85
Support level: 55.70, 53.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price extended gains following prior rebound from its lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest its price to advance further up, towards the direction of 1448.00.
Resistance level: 1448.00, 1471.70
Support level: 1415.00, 1390.00