3 August 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar rose amid escalating trade war tensions
The dollar index remains firm against its basket of major rivals after US have again escalated trade war into another level. Markets are currently gripped by concerns over the escalating trade tensions as US as President Donald Trump has instructed his trade aide for plans to increase higher tariffs of 25% from 10% on $200 billion worth of imported goods from China and China vows to retaliate if the US acted on the threat. However, due to US imports more than China, the market are reacting to the trade war where US is the winner therefore boosting risk sentiment in the dollar. Besides that, the strength of the dollar is further support by a steady labor economic data where Initial Jobless Claims has rose by 1,000 to 217,000 for the week ended July 27, beating economists’ forecast for a rise to 218,000 according to the data from The US Department of Labor. Investor will now looking ahead for the Nonfarm Payroll which will be released on tonight. The dollar has gain 0.05% to 94.94 as of writing. Meanwhile GBP/USD has slip 0.03% to 1.3010 at the time of writing following by an interest rate raise by the BoE. Although BoE has unanimously voted for a hike increase provide some support for the sterling, the momentum was short-lived after a softer comments by Governor BoE Mark Carny which indicating a very limited and slow pace of tightening due to Brexit uncertainty. Investor will now focus on the PM Theresa May and French President Macron meeting to looking for prospects for the pair.
In the commodities market, the price of crude oil has settled higher by 0.07% to $68.96 after a reports of inventory decline in the crude stockpiles at the domestic trading hub Cushing, Oklahoma. According to information provider Genscape, the stockpiles at the hub have dropped by 1.1 million barrels since Friday, 27.Besides that, the bullish momentum is further boosted by the ongoing uncertainty linked to Iranian Oil. On the other hand, the price of gold was down $1208.00 a troy ounce as the dollar strengthen amid escalating trade tensions and also upbeat economic data.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
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Today’s Highlight Events
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Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – Service PMI (Jul) | 55.1 | 54.7 | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) | 213K | 193K | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Jul) | 4.0% | 3.9% | – |
| 22.00 | USD – Non Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 60.7 | – | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 861 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level 1.3045. Price action and MACD which display ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair may extend its losses towards the next support level 1.2965.
Resistance level: 1.3045, 1.3120
Support level: 1.2965, 1.2860
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.1580. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum with starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair may experience a short term technical correction towards the trend line and resistance level 1.1610.
Resistance level: 1.1610, 1.1635
Support level: 1.1580, 1.1555
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following recent breakout above the resistance level 111.55. MACD which display bullish signal with golden cross formation suggest the pair may extend its gains toward resistance level 111.90.
Resistance level: 111.90, 112.15
Support level: 111.55, 111.25
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: The price of crude oil was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 67.45. MACD which illustrate starting of bullish momentum with golden cross formation suggest the pair may extend its gains towards the resistance level 69.75.
Resistance level: 69.75, 70.35
Support level: 68.40, 67.45
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following recent breakout below the support level 1214.00 and currently testing the support level 1206.00. Although MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum, a breakout below the support level 1206.00 is required for further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1214.00, 1218.00
Support level: 1206.00, 1200.00