3 October 2017 Daily Analysis
Catalonia drags down Euro, dollar-bull unscathed.
US dollar extended its gains during Asian trading hours on Tuesday following optimistic manufacturing data which has reinforced market sentiment towards an interest rate hike by year-end. The dollar index added up 0.10% while last quoted at 93.45 as of writing. According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the index of national factory activity for the month of September tacks in at 60.8, versus forecast for a depreciation to 58.0. The data achieved its highest level since May 2004, spurring more expectation for a solid third quarter economic growth and performance. Greenback has risen in the recent weeks following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s hawkish signal while coupled with US President Donald Trump’s tax reformation which could help escalate the country’s economic growth in the future. On the other hand, EUR/USD was down 0.02% while exchanged hands at $1.1731 amid renewed Eurozone geopolitical risk. The single common currency came under pressure following the initiation of disputed independence referendum in Catalonia from Spain which could spark further uncertainty for the country and economic bloc.
In the commodities market, crude oil price sheds 0.26% while traded at $50.45 per barrel following report that shows an uptick in OPEC’s oil production last month. According to recent Reuters poll, the output among OPEC members rose by 50,000 per barrel a day in September as the cartel’s compliance with its production cut agreement fell to 86%. Otherwise, spot gold price was down 0.05% to $1,270.32 amid stronger dollar and higher expectation towards rising borrowing cost in the future.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day EUR Germany – Unification Day
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
11:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
20:30 USD FOMC Member Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 11:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Sep) | 51.1 | 51.0 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior closure below the support level of 1.3285. Both MA line which continues to expand downwards, in tandem with MACD histogram which illustrate downward signal suggest the pair to advance towards the next target at 1.3190.
Resistance level: 1.3285, 1.3405
Support level: 1.3190, 1.3090
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD remains under pressure following prior retracement before the 60-MA line (green). Both MA lines which continues to narrow downwards suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the strong support level of 1.1715.
Resistance level: 1.1930, 1.2090
Support level: 1.1715, 1.1480
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within an upward channel while currently testing at the top level near the strong resistance of 113.20. As the selling pressure from the top is relatively substantial, thus a retracement may suggest short-term downside bias for the pair to extend its losses towards the lower level of the channel.
Resistance level: 113.20, 113.45
Support level: 112.90, 112.65
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended its losses following prior breakout from the upward trend line. Both MA lines which continues to narrow downwards suggest the commodity price to advance further down and retest at the strong support level near 50.05.
Resistance level: 51.10, 52.85
Support level: 50.05, 49.20
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price extended its losses following prior retracement while closing below the support level of 1281.05. However, downward signal from MACD histogram which continues to diminish may suggest gold price to be traded higher in short-term as retracement before continue its major downside bias.
Resistance level: 1281.05, 1290.00
Support level: 1263.00, 1237.35