04 January 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar tumbles amid poor data.
Dollar index fell measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs due to poor ISM Manufacturing PMI data and also Initial Jobless Claims while moving closer to the first Non-farm Payroll of 2019. Dollar was gaining during early US trading session supported by stronger than expected ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data with a reading of 271K compared to 179K, but was later sold-off following the announcement of lower than expected manufacturing data with 54.1 compared to forecasted 57.7. Moreover, higher than expected Initial Jobless Claims data indicated a larger number of unemployed workers in the US which worries investors that today’s Non-farm Payrolls data may miss economists’ expectations which would further dollar bearish momentum. As global growth concerns continue to weigh on the market, investors are more reluctant to enter risky markets at the moment without the support from strong sentiment, allowing safe-haven such as Yen and gold to hold onto their gains. Pair of USD/JPY was still trading at lower levels after a flash crash in the market yesterday despite the closing of Japanese market for holidays. As of writing, dollar index fell by 0.56% to 95.78 while pair of USD/JPY edged higher by 0.12% to 107.75.
In the commodities market, crude oil price climbed 0.32% to $46.95 per barrel amid falling crude inventories, supported by OPEC and ally’s production cut. According to American Petroleum Institute, US inventory level fell to -4.50M compared to previous level of 6.92M. Oil bulls are currently celebrating yesterday’s gains and anticipating future inventories level to be lower while waiting for Crude Oil Inventories report. On the other hand, gold price rose by 0.12% to $1295.50 a troy ounce amid global growth slowdown.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:15 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change | -16K | -12K | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Dec) | 50.4 | 50.7 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) | 155K | 178K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Dec) | 3.7% | 3.7% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Dec) | 94.1K | 6.8K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 95.70. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest dollar to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 96.00.
Resistance level: 96.00, 96.25
Support level: 95.70, 95.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 1.2610. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.2660.
Resistance level: 1.2660, 1.2700
Support level: 1.2610, 1.2555
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1395. MACD which display starting bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing its candle above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.1395, 1.1435
Support level: 1.1350, 1.1320
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 107.70. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 108.40.
Resistance level: 108.40, 108.90
Support level: 107.70, 107.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 0.7000. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7035.
Resistance level: 0.7035, 0.7070
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6970
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6650. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6700.
Resistance level: 0.6700, 0.6745
Support level: 0.6650, 0.6600
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3480. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3530, 1.3565
Support level: 1.3480, 1.3435
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9865. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing its candle below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9920, 0.9960
Support level: 0.9865, 0.9835
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 47.00. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 47.00, 48.50
Support level: 45.20, 43.55
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1295.00. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1230.90.
Resistance level: 1230.90, 1305.85
Support level: 1295.00, 1288.10