04 April 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar in misery over trade-war peril.
Dollar index was traded lower against its major peers by 0.18% to 89.71 as of writing following rising global trade tensions between U.S. and China while market participants await release of non-farm payrolls (NFP) report this Friday. Greenback has struggled to gain on its ground after China announced to impose a list of possible tariffs up to $3 billion on 128 U.S. products. On the other hand, Trump administration was also reported to impose tariffs of more than $50 billion worth on advanced technology Chinese imports as a punishment for the latter party over technology transfer policies. Under the investigation of Section 301 of the 1974 U.S. Trade Act, China has been alleged to systematically misappropriate American intellectual property. An escalation of a full-blown trade dispute between the two major economies has rocked investors’ fears over a plausible trade war that will crush the global economic growth. On the contrary, USD/JPY was down 0.1% to 106.48 following worries over a halt to the growth of global economy prior to the escalating U.S. – China trade tensions.
In the commodities market, crude oil price extended losses by 0.31% to $63.31 per barrel following a surge of Russia’s oil production to an 11-month high of 10.97 million bpd in March to meet weather-related demand in the country. Otherwise, gold price pared its losses by 0.32% to $1332.85 following an ongoing trade tensions between U.S. and China.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:45 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
23:00 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| 09:45 | CNY – Caixin Services PMI (Mar) | 54.2 | 54.5 | 52.3 |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Mar) | 51.4 | 51.2 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 1.1% | 1.4% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 8.6% | 8.5% | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar) | 235K | 206K | – |
| 21:45 | USD – Services PMI (Mar) | 54.1 | 54.3 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Mar) | 55.0 | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 59.5 | 59.2 | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 1.643M | -0.287M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | -3.472M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded in consolidation between resistance level at 1.4080 and support level at 1.4010. Absence of significant signals from both candlestick pattern and MACD would suggest to wait for confirmation breakout to grasp the next direction of the pair in near term.
Resistance level: 1.4080, 1.4130
Support level: 1.4010, 1.3910
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1.2250. Golden-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher before continuing its downside bias.
Resistance level: 1.2300, 1.2350
Support level: 1.2250, 1.2210
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 106.65. Death-cross as shown by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower supposed closure of candlestick below the minor support at 106.40 is successful.
Resistance level: 106.65, 107.00
Support level: 106.10, 105.65
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 63.10. However, MACD histogram that shows diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the commodity price to extend its losses towards its previous low.
Resistance level: 64.10, 64.70
Support level: 63.10, 62.30
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower after breaking support level at 1334.90. Death-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest downside bias for the commodity price yet confirmation from candlestick pattern is required to reaffirm the direction.
Resistance level: 1334.90, 1337.70
Support level: 1327.90, 1321.10