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4 May 2017                          Daily Analysis


Analogous Fed spur optimism for rate hike.

US dollar remained resilient during Asian session on Thursday following Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision while market participants look forward for tomorrow’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report. The dollar index was up 0.14% to 99.15 as of writing. Overnight, US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75-1.00%, well within market expectations. The Feds struck a similar tone in its statement, reiterating that interest rates will be increased gradually throughout the year. They noted that while economic activity slowed down in the first quarter and household spending rose modestly, they postulate that the labor market has continued to strengthen as job gains were solid in the recent months. Subsequent to the statement, US dollar rose sharply while gold price slipped to sessions low. Referring to the Fed rate monitor tool, nearly 70% of traders is expecting an interest rate hike in June, as compared to only 60% prior to the interest rate decision.


Looking into the commodities market, crude oil price loses its ground on Thursday after skidding 0.27% to $47.69 as crude oil inventories fell lesser than expectations with 930,000 barrels. Similarly, gold price was down 0.42% to $1,241.18 following dollar’s resilient after the release of Federal Reserve interest rate decision.


Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                     JPY                       Greenery Day


Today’s Highlight Event

Time                       Market                  Event

00:30                       EUR                      ECB President Draghi Speaks

04:25                       CAD                      BoC Gov Poloz Speaks


Today’s Highlight Economy Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
09:30 AUD – Trade Balance (Mar) 3.574B 3.400B 3.107B
16:30 GBP – Services PMI (Apr) 55.0 54.5
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 257K 247K
20:30 USD – Trade Balance (Mar) -43.60B 44.50B
20:30 CAD – Trade Balance (Mar) -0.97B -0.80B
22:00 USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar) 1.0% 0.4%



GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound form the support level of 1.2860. Recent rebound suggests GBPUSD to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction still suggests GBPUSD to extend its downward momentum as both MA lines continue to expand downward after the formation of death cross.


Resistance level: 1.2885, 1.2915

Support level: 1.2860, 1.2835




EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retracement from the upper level of the channel. A closure below the support level of 1.0880 would suggest EURUSD to be traded lower in short-term towards the bottom level of the sideways channel.


Resistance level: 1.0950, 1.1000

Support level: 1.0880, 1.0850, 1.0800




USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended its upward momentum following prior closure above previous resistance level at 112.20. It is expected to move further upwards after breaking the resistance level of 112.90.


Resistance level: 112.90, 113.55

Support level: 112.20, 111.40




CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was thinly traded near the support level of 47.40 following prior downward momentum. As the signal line from MACD begins to narrow upwards, crude oil price may be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction still suggests crude oil price to move further downwards.


Resistance level: 48.80, 50.25

Support level: 47.40, 46.15




GOLD_, H4: Gold price has recently broken out from bottom level of downward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further downwards. As the MACD histogram continues to illustrate downward signal and momentum, a successful closure below the support level of 1235.60 would suggest gold price to extend its losses.


Resistance level: 1250.00, 1261.35

Support level: 1235.60, 1222.70