4 July 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar losses steam as Euro reconcile.
US dollar edges lower on Wednesday following a sharp rebound in Euro after German Chancellor Angela Merkel averted an imminent split of her fragile coalition government by reaching a compromise within party members. Overnight, Merkel resolved a row over migration policy after achieving consensus with Interior Minister Horst Seehofer to tighten border controls and setting up closed holding centers to allow faster processing of asylum seekers and remove those whom are not qualified. However, losses on the greenback were capped following the release of better-than-expected economic data from the United States. According to Commerce Department, US factory orders grew by 0.4% during the month of May, a tad higher than economist forecast of only 0.1%. Overall, trading volumes were subdued as market participants reduces their position ahead of US Independence Day where financial market will be closed for trading. As of writing, dollar index settled down 0.46% to 94.35 while pair of EUR/USD rose 0.02% to $1.1660.
In the commodities market, crude oil price pared its losses by 0.42% to $74.69 per barrel following a sharp plunge from the psychological level at $75.00 on yesterday. Bearish momentum was evoked on yesterday after Saudi Arabia agreed to US President Donald Trump demand to increase their daily production in order to stabilize the oil market. Otherwise, gold price recovered its losses by 0.07% to $1,253.78 a troy ounce following broad weakness on the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day USD Independence Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 09:45 | CNY – Caixin Services PMI (Jun) | 52.9 | 52.7 | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Services PMI (Jun) | 53.9 | 53.9 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Jun) | 54.0 | 53.9 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of narrowing triangle. Recent price action while couples with both MA line which shows bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of resistance level at 1.3235.
Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3290
Support level: 1.3185, 1.3150
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of narrowing triangle. Both MA line which continues to expand upward suggest the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of resistance level at 1.1680.
Resistance level: 1.1680, 1.1710
Support level: 1.1640, 1.1590
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended its losses following prior retracement from the resistance level of 111.05. MACD histogram which illustrate ongoing bearish bias suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the direction of 110.30.
Resistance level: 110.55, 111.05
Support level: 110.30, 110.00
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound while recently re-entered into the ascending channel. MACD histogram which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests further bullish signal. However, a close above 74.90 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 74.90, 76.10
Support level: 72.80, 71.15
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of descending channel. Both MA line which forms a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains, towards the direction of resistance level at 1260.00.
Resistance level: 1260.00, 1267.00
Support level: 1254.00, 1249.15