4 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Muted reaction as Independence Day approaches.
US dollar remains traded within a tight range following the release of bearish economic data from the region. According to ADP, Nonfarm Employment Change for the month of June came in at 102K, missing economist forecast for a reading up to 140K. In addition, Institute for Supply Management reported that its Non-Manufacturing PMI experienced slight contraction to 55.1 from 56.9 for the month of June. Both data has further cemented the course for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve at the end of the month. However, market reaction towards both data was rather limited as US market will be closed for trading today in conjunction with Independence Day. On the other hand, pound sterling was settled lower on yesterday due to lesser-than-expected activity reading for its Services sector. According to Markit, UK’s Services PMI for the month of June came in slightly lower at 50.2, missing economist forecast to remain stable at 51.0. The data was released a day after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney signaled to make adjustments upon its monetary policy in order to support Britain’s growth due to ongoing trade risks in the global market. As of writing, the dollar index ticks up 0.02% to 96.27 while pair of GBP/USD recovered its losses by 0.08% to 1.2580.
As for commodities, crude oil price depreciates by 0.33% to $57.09 per barrel. Bearish pressure continues to limit its gains after EIA reported that its inventories fell by -1.085 million barrels last week, lesser than forecasted reading of -2.964 million barrels. Similarly, gold price fell by 0.16% to $1,416.59 a troy ounce due to profit taking after peaking at one-week high.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day USD Independence Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | -0.4% | 0.4% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 96.35. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 96.35, 97.05
Support level: 95.80, 95.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.2630, 1.2670
Support level: 1.2575, 1.2515
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher after closing above the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1.1305, 1.1345
Support level: 1.1275, 1.1210
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 107.70.
Resistance level: 108.25, 108.50
Support level: 107.70, 107.30
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the top level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful breakout from the top.
Resistance level: 0.7040, 0.7110
Support level: 0.7005, 0.6960
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 0.6710. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6710.
Resistance level: 0.6710, 0.6765
Support level: 0.6655, 0.6590
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD extended its losses while currently testing at the support of 1.3050. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 1.3050.
Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3220
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2970
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher level. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.9890, 0.9970
Support level: 0.9835, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout at 57.25. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further up, towards the direction of 58.85.
Resistance level: 58.85, 59.60
Support level: 57.25, 55.70
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1415.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its price to extend further up after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1435.00, 1448.00
Support level: 1415.00, 1390.00