4 August 2017 Daily Analysis
Bears cheer on US-Russia, NFP eyed but could it sustain?
Great British Pound gains some ground on Friday after Bank of England (BoE) pronounced to leave their benchmark rate unchanged while assigning a rather dovish stance on their economic projection. Pair of GBP/USD was held flat at $1.3137 during Asian trading hours. Member of the bank voted to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% with 6 versus 2, citing possible signs of economic slowdown. Referring to the MPC meeting minutes, they postulate that GDP growth has been performing sluggishly while business survey expectation was weakened and remained possible for further softening in the future. On the other hand, the dollar index was down 0.12% to 92.58 following heightened political pressure as US special counsel impaneled a grand jury to investigate Russian’s interference in 2016 election. The latest development in Trump-Russia saga will likely catalyze further uncertainty in Washington after The Senate rejected an amendment to replace Obamacare.
In the commodities market, crude oil price appreciates by 0.06% to $49.06 while investors look forward to latest oil rig reading from US Baker Hughes. Otherwise, gold price was up 0.09% to $1,268.94 following heightened uncertainty in US politics.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
09:30 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Retail Sales (Jun) | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) | 222K | 183K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Jul) | 4.4% | 4.3% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Jul) | 45.3K | 10.0K | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Jul) | 61.6 | 59.2 | – |
| 01:00 | Crude Oil – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 766 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior plunge while closing below the 20-MA line (red). MACD histogram which illustrates negative divergence suggests an extension of losses towards the next target at 1.3090.
Resistance level: 1.3160, 1.3200
Support level: 1.3090, 1.3040
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD extended gains following prior closure above the resistance level of 1.1850. Both MA lines which continues to expand upwards suggests EURUSD to continue its upward momentum after closing above the psychological level of 1.1900.
Resistance level: 1.1900, 1.1960
Support level: 1.1850, 1.1775
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 109.85. MACD histogram begins to form a positive divergence signal suggests USDJPY to extend its upward momentum towards the first target at 110.25.
Resistance level: 110.25, 110.55
Support level: 110.05, 109.85
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement while currently testing at the key 23.6 Fibonacci level of 48.80. A breakthrough from this level would suggest an extension of retracement towards the next target at 47.85.
Resistance level: 49.65, 50.40
Support level: 48.80, 47.85
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded flat near recent high of 1273.95 which signals a strong bearish momentum ahead. MACD continues to illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests gold price to extend its losses after breaking the support level of 1265.50.
Resistance level: 1273.93, 1281.00
Support level: 1265.50, 1257.60