4 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar flat amid Powell comments on interest rate.
The dollar index was seen flat during early European trading session at 95.65 after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell commented on the interest rate being far away from the neutral rate near 3%. In his speech he mentioned that the accommodative low interest rate is no longer needed as the US economy continues to strengthen. Although interest rates are still accommodative, the central bank will focus more on shifting it towards the neutral rate where the Fed plans to increase it to 3.4% before maintaining its interest rate. In other news, the pair GBP/USD slipped by 0.03% to 1.2935 amid ongoing Brexit woes and the strengthening of the dollar. The pound touched near 10th September low as investors flee from risky assets market and enter into the safe-haven dollar market. Price direction for pound sterling will now depends strongly on Brexit sentiment.
As for commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.07% to $76.10 per barrel this morning after news reported that Saudi Arabia and Russia discussed privately to increase crude output as Iran sanction comes near. On the other hand, gold price was down by 0.03% to $1,197.90 a troy ounce after being pressured by a stronger US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:15 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 19:30 | USD – Challenger Job Cuts (Sep) | 38.5K | – | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 214K | 211K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) | -0.8% | 2.1% | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Sep) | 61.9 | 62.3 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 95.65. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 95.25.
Resistance level: 95.65, 96.00
Support level: 95.25, 94.55
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2925. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3010.
Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3075
Support level: 1.2925, 1.2820
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1465. MACD which display a starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1530.
Resistance level: 1.1530, 1.1570
Support level: 1.1465, 1.1395
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 114.55. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 114.00.
Resistance level: 114.55, 114.85
Support level: 114.00, 113.55
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.7085. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 0.7125.
Resistance level: 0.7125, 0.7160
Support level: 0.7085, 0.7040
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support of 0.6500. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6435.
Resistance level: 0.6500, 0.6560
Support level: 0.6435, 0.6375
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.2840. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 1.2905.
Resistance level: 1.2905, 1.2965
Support level: 1.2840, 1.2785
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.9930. MACD which illustrate bearish signal and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9875.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9875, 0.9815
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 77.05. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum the starting formation of a death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 74.85.
Resistance level: 77.05, 78.25
Support level: 74.85, 72.80
GOLD, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1197.90. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1191.10.
Resistance level: 1197.90, 1203.30
Support level: 1191.10, 1186.30