4 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback skyrocketed after ADP delivers.
US dollar extended its rally on yesterday, touching one-month high against its peers over the backdrop of optimistic private sectors jobs data. The dollar index was quoted up 0.30%, last seen around 95.65 during Asian session. According to ADP, US private sector payrolls surged to 230,000 jobs for the month of September, its highest level since February this year. In addition, Institute of Supply Management reported that US Non-Manufacturing PMI for the month of September expanded to 61.6 versus forecast of 58.1. The data which shows positive growth on non-manufacturing sectors encompasses majority of US economy growth. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD appreciates by 0.02% to 1.1480. The currency received some bullish support after Italy’s government announced to reduce its budget deficit for next coming years.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.05% to $76.05 per barrel this morning. The commodity remains broadly supported as investors latched their focus on the upcoming Iranian sanctions that may significantly reduce global crude oil supply. Otherwise, gold price was down by 0.15% to $1,198.25 a troy ounce after being pressured by a stronger US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:15 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 19:30 | USD – Challenger Job Cuts (Sep) | 38.5K | – | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 214K | 211K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) | -0.8% | 2.1% | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Sep) | 61.9 | 62.3 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index extended gains following prior breakout from the resistance level near 95.50. MACD which has formed bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up towards the direction of 96.00.
Resistance level: 96.00, 96.30
Support level: 95.50, 95.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains in a downtrend following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which formed death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the target near 1.2910.
Resistance level: 1.2985, 1.3055
Support level: 1.2910, 1.2860
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level of 1.1495. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the direction of 1.1445.
Resistance level: 1.1495, 1.1550
Support level: 1.1445, 1.1420
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the target near 114.55. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 114.55, 114.85
Support level: 114.30, 114.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD extended its losses while currently testing near the strong support of 0.7090. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to advance further down after successfully breaking the target of 0.7090.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7200
Support level: 0.7090, 0.7025
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support of 0.6540. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6490.
Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6490, 0.6450
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the threshold of 1.2800. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the target of 1.2900.
Resistance level: 1.2900, 1.2955
Support level: 1.2860, 1.2800
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout from 0.9850. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction at 0.9940.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9885, 0.9850
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 76.15, 76.65
Support level: 75.60, 74.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement while currently testing near the 60-MA line (green). MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 60-MA line.
Resistance level: 1202.00, 1210.60
Support level: 1192.00, 1184.00