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4 October 2022                  Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar extend its bearish trend following downbeat manufacturing data.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currencies extend its losses over the backdrop of downbeat economic data yesterday. According to Institute for Supply Management, US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) notched down significantly from the previous reading of 52.8 to 50.9, missing the market forecast at 52.2. Such downbeat economic data indicated that currently the US manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace in nearly 2 years as new orders diminished following the aggressive rate hike from the Federal Reserve continue to weigh down demand and stabilize inflation risk. On the other hand, the Australia Dollar slumped significantly following the Australia’s central bank surprised markets by lifting interest rate by a smaller-than-expected 25 basis point. According to the latest monetary policy meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to increase their interest rate from the preliminary reading of 2.35% to 2.60%, lower than the market expectation at 2.85%. As of writing, the Dollar Index slumped by 0.01% to 111.45 while the pair of AUD/USD depreciated by 0.58% to 0.6480.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged by 0.66% to $84.15 per barrel as of writing. The oil market was edged higher ahead of crucial OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday. On the other hand, the gold price appreciated by $1699.25 per troy ounces as of writing amid weakening US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   CNY                                        China – National Day

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

11:30                     AUD                                       RBA Rate Statement

23:00                     EUR                                        ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
11:30 AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct) 2.35% 2.85%
22:00 USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Aug) 11.239M 10.650M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after breakout.

 

Resistance level: 113.65, 117.30

Support level: 111.40, 107.55

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebounded from the support level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.1415, 1.1730

Support level: 1.1065, 1.0890

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebounded from the support level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9915, 1.0145

Support level: 0.9740, 0.9550

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 145.35, 152.80

Support level: 140.75, 136.55

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6515, 0.6645

Support level: 0.6385, 0.6185

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebounded from the support level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.5850, 0.6030

Support level: 0.5590, 0.5465

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3775, 1.3970

Support level: 1.3365, 1.3100

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9965, 1.0035

Support level: 0.9860, 0.9750

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 85.30, 89.65

Support level: 81.95, 76.80

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after breakout.

 

Resistance level: 1700.60, 1733.75

Support level: 1676.30, 1655.95