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4 October 2022                  Morning Session Analysis

Pound Sterling revived as Truss dropped part of tax cuts plan.

The GBP/USD, which widely traded by majority of investors surged on yesterday trading session amid the reversing plan from the Liz Truss government. According to CNBC, the UK government had announced a series of tax cuts just weeks into its tenure. However, the step taken by the government was poorly received by financial markets. The top rate of tax paid on high-paid group which set at the 40% was seen as particular politically toxic, as British citizens are dealing with their soaring living cost. Thus, the government decided to drop the plan in order to stimulus the financial stability in the nation. In the perspective of investors, the U-turn of the UK government stand would increase the national income, which boosted up the value of Pound Sterling. On the economic data front, the gains experienced by GBP/USD was limited after the bearish economic data has been released. The UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) posted in at the reading of 48.4, missing the consensus forecast of 48.5. As of writing, GBP/USD rose by 0.09% to 1.1333.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price dropped by 0.25% to $83.42 per barrel as of writing. Yesterday, the crude oil price surged as OPEC+ considered to reduce output by more than 1 million barrels per day, the biggest cut since 2020. In addition, the gold price appreciated by 0.50% to $1701.77 per troy ounce as of writing following the weakening of US Dollar.

 

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   CNY                                        China – National Day

 

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

11:30                     AUD                                       RBA Rate Statement

23:00                     EUR                                        ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
11:30 AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct) 2.35% 2.85%
22:00 USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Aug) 11.239M 10.650M

 

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses if successfully breakout the support level.

 

Resistance level: 113.00, 114.10

Support level: 111.50, 110.45

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.1370, 1.1595

Support level: 1.1085, 1.0895

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains.

 

Resistance level: 0.9905, 1.0000

Support level: 0.9810, 0.9730

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 145.60, 147.10

Support level: 144.05, 142.35

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains.

 

Resistance level: 0.6555, 0.6650

Support level: 0.6470, 0.6370

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains.

 

Resistance level: 0.5770, 0.5865

Support level: 0.5680, 0.5615

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses if successfully breakout the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3820, 1.3990

Support level: 1.3635, 1.3455

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains if successfully breakout the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9930, 1.0020

Support level: 0.9865, 0.9785

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains.

 

Resistance level: 86.05, 91.50

Support level: 81.80, 78.20

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains.

 

Resistance level: 1716.10, 1733.55

Support level: 1693.95, 1678.65