4 December 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar plunges amid ceasefire on trade war.
Dollar index weakens against a basket of six major currencies ahead of European trading session amid temporary ceasefire of trade war after the meeting between US President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping last week where both leaders agreed to a 90-day truce where no additional or new tariff will be imposed while a permanent deal are being negotiated. The truce had led to global market growth which caused investors to flee from safe-haven dollar and enter to riskier assets such as China Yuan and Australian dollar. Dollar index fell by 0.33% to 96.60. In other news, pair of AUD/USD increased by 0.23% to 0.7375 after the release of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate statement where the bank will remain the official cash rate at 1.50% for the 28th months. RBA governor Philip Lowe stated that global economic expansion is advancing and unemployment rates are low among advanced economies. Temporary ceasefire of the trade war also helped boost the Australian dollar as easing trade tensions between China and US will benefit China’s major trade partners.
For the commodities market, crude oil price increased by 0.51% to $53.35 per barrel while sentiment remains positive for the crude market as OPEC and Russia are expected to cut global supply to stabilize global glut Otherwise, gold price rose 0.47% to $1,236.20 a troy ounce as investors flee from dollar market into safe-haven assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
17:15 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Nov) | 53.2 | 52.5 | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q3) | 0.7% | 0.4% | – |
| 05:30
(5th) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 3.453M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the upward trend line and support level 96.60. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest index to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 96.75, 96.90
Support level: 96.60, 96.40
GPBUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2730. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.2760.
Resistance level: 1.2760, 1.2800
Support level: 1.2730, 1.2700
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level and downward trend line. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level and trend line.
Resistance level: 1.1370, 1.1410
Support level: 1.1340, 1.1310
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level 113.25. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 112.95.
Resistance level: 113.25, 113.50
Support level: 112.95, 112.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.7370. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a technical correction and retrace from the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7370, 0.7400
Support level: 0.7340, 0.7315
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6950. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6950, 0.7005
Support level: 0.6905, 0.6845
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3180. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3210, 1.3260
Support level: 1.3180, 1.3145
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 0.9955. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the bottom level of the channel.
Resistance level: 0.9990, 1.0030
Support level: 0.9955, 0.9915
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level 53.15. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo short-term technical correction and traded lower towards the support level 53.15.
Resistance level: 54.15, 55.15
Support level: 53.15, 52.25
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1235.70. MACD which display persistent bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1239.95.
Resistance level: 1239.95, 1242.10
Support level: 1235.70, 1231.00