4 December 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback somber as trade war eases.
US dollar tumbled against other major currencies on Monday as investors digests reports of temporary US-China trade truce and ambivalent economic data from the region. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.33%, last seen around 96.85. Prior, US and China agreed to hold off tariff introduction for 90 days as the two nations continues their trade talk. On the other hand, the release of duo economic data from yesterday did little to suppress its losses as traders fled towards risk-sensitive assets due to diminishing trade war worries. According to ISM, its manufacturing PMI for the month of November ticks up to 59.3, exceeding economist expectation of 57.6. However, Construction Spending fell short of forecast for last month, coming in at only 0.1% versus 0.4%. Elsewhere, pound sterling plunged sharply on yesterday before recovering its losses this morning due to ongoing market worries over the imminent Parliamentary Brexit vote. Investors were concerned that UK Prime Minister would not be able to attain sufficient vote needed to pass the Brexit draft agreement next week and it may lead to a “No-Confidence” vote against her. During Asian session, pair of GBP/USD ticks up 0.03% to 1.2725.
In the commodities market, crude oil price tacks up 0.23% to $53.12 per barrel this morning. The commodity remained well supported as other nations such as Canada and Malaysia announced their support towards OPEC by lowering their local daily oil production levels. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.07% to $1,231.60 a troy ounce following weaker dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
11:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
17:15 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 11:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Nov) | 53.2 | 52.5 | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q3) | 0.7% | 0.4% | – |
| 05:30
(5th) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 3.453M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of the narrowing triangle. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the index to extend its losses after closing below 96.80.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40
Support level: 96.80, 96.60
GPBUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2725, 1.2770
Support level: 1.2690, 1.2640
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the threshold 1.1360.
Resistance level: 1.1360, 1.1410
Support level: 1.1310, 1.1265
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from 113.70. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 113.70, 113.85
Support level: 113.30, 112.95
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 0.7340.
Resistance level: 0.7370, 0.7415
Support level: 0.7340, 0.7300
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior closure above 0.6890. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the resistance of 0.6940.
Resistance level: 0.6940, 0.7005
Support level: 0.6890, 0.6830
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.3155. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term towards 1.3210.
Resistance level: 1.3210, 1.3255
Support level: 1.3155, 1.3115
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.0000. MACD which illustrate imminent formation of death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term, towards the direction of 0.9955.
Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0040
Support level: 0.9955, 0.9930
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to be traded higher and advance towards 53.90.
Resistance level: 53.90, 55.35
Support level: 52.00, 50.25
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout from 1228.00. MACD which continues to illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests its price to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1237.25.
Resistance level: 1237.25, 1242.10
Support level: 1220.00, 1215.95