05 April 2018 Daily Analysis
Greenback muted in anticipation of NFP and Powell’s speech.
Greenback was traded in consolidation against its major peers, currently standing at 89.71 following the release of mixed economic data while U.S. – China trade concerns continued to weigh on the outlook for the U.S. currency. Overnight, ADP nonfarm employment change recorded an increase of 241K, well above the economists’ expectation of 208K. However, the upbeat data has failed to lift the Greenback following both services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI that missed the expected reading. At the same time, fears over the prospect of an all-out trade war between the U.S. and China continued to limit on dollar bull. All in all, market participants will be on-eyed towards the release of NFP reports and speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell due this Friday to determine the direction of the dollar. On the contrary, GBP/USD remains broadly higher at $1.4087 following gains of 0.16%. The pair came under pressure earlier following construction PMI that missed the forecast reading of 50.9, last stood at 47.0. The slowdown of construction activity in the region was believed to be due to unreasonably cold weather.
In the commodities market, crude oil price pared its losses by 0.24% to $63.49 per barrel following Energy Information Administration (EIA) report that showed a surprise huge draw in U.S. crude supplies by 4.617 million barrels last week as compared to the economists’ expectation for a rise of 1.4 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price extended losses by 0.12% to $1331.19 a troy ounce following profit-taking by traders ahead the release of NFP data and speech by Jerome Powell.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
01:00 (Fri) USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:30 | AUD – Trade Balance | 1.055B | 0.720B | – |
| 15:15 | CHF – CPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Services PMI (Mar) | 54.2 | 54.2 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – Markit Composite PMI (Mar) | 55.3 | 55.3 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – Services PMI (Mar) | 55.0 | 55.0 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Mar) | 54.5 | 54.2 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | -0.1% | 0.6% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 215K | 223K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Trade Balance (Feb) | -56.60B | -56.50B | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Trade Balance (Feb) | -1.91B | -2.10B | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded in consolidation between resistance level at 1.4090 and support level at 1.4010. Absence of significant signals from both candlestick pattern and MACD would suggest to wait for confirmation breakout to grasp the next movement of the pair in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.4090, 1.4150
Support level: 1.4000, 1.3910
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1.2250. The pair is currently testing the resistance level at 1.2290. Positive divergence as displayed by MACD histogram would suggest the pair to extend its gains if breakout at the said resistance level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.2290, 1.2310
Support level: 1.2250, 1.2220
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 106.65. The pair is currently testing the resistance by descending trend line. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains if the pair successfully breaks the trend line as mentioned.
Resistance level: 107.00, 107.50
Support level: 106.65, 106.40
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher prior gaining its support at 63.10. However, MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the commodity price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower before continuing its bullish bias.
Resistance level: 63.80, 64.20
Support level: 63.10, 62.30
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower after breaking support level at 1334.90. Arrangement of bearish candlesticks and death-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its losses towards the support level at 1327.90.
Resistance level: 1334.90, 1337.70
Support level: 1327.90, 1321.10