5 June 2018 Daily Analysis
Greenback stages its rebound as Italy stirs up politics.
US dollar pared its losses against other major currencies on yesterday over the backdrop of positive economic data while investors monitor imminent political risk arise from the formation of new government in Italy. The dollar index which measures its strength against a basket of six major currencies added up 0.04% to 93.96 during early Asian trading hours. Overnight, greenback rebounds from its prior one-week low after US Commerce Department reported that Non-Defense Capital Shipments rose 0.9% last month, beating economist expectation for a rise of up to 0.8%. However, gains on the currency were capped after Durable Goods Orders fell in line with economist forecast with a reading of -1.6% for last month. On the other hand, pairing of EUR/USD retreats from its one-week high, down 0.02% to $1.1698. The single common currency received a bearish blow since few weeks ago following higher political risk within the economic zone. Although administration crisis in Italy has been resolved since last Friday with the swearing in of new government formed by 5-Star Movement and League, both parties remained as anti-EU and may have clashes with Brussels in the long-run. For the time being, investors will anticipate parliamentary approval for 18-members of cabinet before setting out to overhaul EU rules and establish their policy.
For the commodities market, crude oil price backtracks its losses by 0.25% to $65.00 per barrel while gains remain limited as market prospect soured due to OPEC’s suggestion to ramp up daily production in order to offset diminished supplies from Iran and Venezuela. On the contrary, gold price was down 0.03% to $1,292.07 a troy ounce as US Federal Reserve is expected to hike their interest rate next week which could lead to diminishing appeal of the safe-haven asset.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:30 | JPY – Household Spending (YoY) (Apr) | -0.7% | 0.8% | -1.3% |
| 09:45 | CNY – Caixin Services PMI (May) | 52.9 | 52.9 | – |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jun) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Services PMI (May) | 52.1 | 52.1 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (May) | 52.8 | 52.9 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (May) | 53.6 | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) | 56.8 | 57.9 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Apr) | 6.550M | 6.490M | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 1.001M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement and closure below the 60-MA line (green). Both MA lines which continues to narrow downwards suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the target at 1.3300.
Resistance level: 1.3360, 1.3410
Support level: 1.3300, 1.3260
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within an ascending wedge while currently testing at the lower level. Both MACD histogram and Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate downward signal suggests bearish bias. Thus, a successful breakout from the bottom level would provide further validation.
Resistance level: 1.1740, 1.1815
Support level: 1.1650, 1.1600
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended gains following prior rebound from the support level at 109.40. Both MACD histogram and MA lines suggests further bullish bias for the pair. However, a close above the resistance level at 110.00 is required to attain further validation.
Resistance level: 110.00, 110.55
Support level: 109.40, 108.85
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price extended its losses following prior breakout from the upward trendline. MACD histogram which continues to illustrate persistent downward signal suggests the pair to extend its bearish bias and move towards the direction of support level near 64.10.
Resistance level: 65.70, 67.30
Support level: 64.10, 61.80
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD histogram which illustrate downward signal suggests further bearish bias. However, a breakout from 1290.00 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1297.00, 1301.20
Support level: 1290.00, 1286.00