5 July 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar relinquished while greater uncertainty lies ahead.
Bears took over greenback’s momentum while US financial market were closed on yesterday following Independence Day celebration. Dollar index slumped 0.15% while last quoted at 94.15 during Asian trading session. With the US market shut, investors will now turn their attention to a rather busy remainder of the week, being FOMC’s meeting minutes and highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report. Likewise, investors were seen to remained cautious ahead of Friday’s deadline whereby US is bound to impose a 25% tariff upon Chinese imports that may see a similar move taken by Beijing as retaliation. On the other hand, pairing of GBP/USD notched up 0.02% to $1.3230 over the backdrop of optimistic economic data. In June, Services PMI shows further expansion with the latest reading at 55.1 versus economist forecast of 53.9. The data portray signs of an economic rebound for the second quarter that may open the door for an August interest rate hike by the Bank of England.
As for commodities market, crude oil price plunged 0.20% to $74.22 per barrel in a thin holiday trade while market participants eye on US crude stockpiles report slated for release tonight. On the other hand, gold price settled up 0.08% to $1,256.99 a troy ounce after Iran threatened to reduce its cooperation with United Nation’s nuclear body after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose fresh sanctions against Iranian oil sales.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
18:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Factory Orders (MoM) (May) | -2.5% | 1.1% | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) | 178K | 190K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 227K | 231K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 58.6 | 58.3 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jun) | 54.1 | – | – |
| 23:00 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -9.891M | -5.200M | – |
| 23:00 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | 1.156M | -0.817M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3235. Recent price action may suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, major trend is still subject to bullish trendline.
Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3290
Support level: 1.3185, 1.3150
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within an ascending triangle while recently rebounded from the lower level. Due to lack of apparent signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to refrain from entering the market until further signal has been obtained.
Resistance level: 1.1680, 1.1710
Support level: 1.1630, 1.1590
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the 60-MA line (green). MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses in short-term towards 110.20.
Resistance level: 110.70, 111.00
Support level: 110.20, 109.85
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement while currently testing at the bottom level. Although MACD histogram illustrate bearish signal, a break below the ascending channel as required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 74.90, 76.10
Support level: 73.60, 72.80
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1254.00. However, MACD histogram which continues to illustrate bearish bias may suggest the commodity price remain in consolidation phase before extending its bullish bias.
Resistance level: 1260.00, 1267.00
Support level: 1254.00, 1249.15