5 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Market anticipates the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls.
Greenback was traded flat against other major currencies on yesterday following the closure of US market in conjunction with Independence Day. In a quiet economic calendar for the whole day, market participants take a “wait-and-see” approach while waiting for the release of Nonfarm Payrolls report later tonight. Prior, ADP report shows a lower-than-expected jobs creation within the US private sector. As the data is highly correlated with tonight’s Nonfarm Payrolls, investors halt from making large amount of trading. Likewise, tonight’s jobs report will likely provide market participants with more signals with regards to Federal Reserve monetary policy stance whom is expected to cut its interest rates within 25 – 50 basis points range at the end of the month. Thus, a bearish Nonfarm Payrolls report may further emphasize the need for a shift in monetary policy from tightening to loosening in order to support any downfall in the US economy. Likewise, investors will also place their attention upon jobs report from Canada which would also provide further signals with regards to Bank of Canada’s future monetary policy sentiment. As of writing, the dollar index ticked down 0.03% to 96.29 while pair of USD/CAD was traded flat around 1.3047.
In the commodities market, crude oil price recovered its losses by 0.12% to $56.73 per barrel. Oil prices was traded in a tight range as traders await further signals from the market. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.52% to $1,422.75 a troy ounce as investors currently pricing in a 100% chance for an interest rate cut from the US later this month.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Factory Orders (MoM) (May) | 0.3% | -0.1% | – |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (May) | -1.9% | -0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) | 75K | 160K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 3.6% | 3.6% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Jun) | 27.7K | 10.0K | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Jun) | 55.9 | 55.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded flat near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to be traded lower after closing below the 20-MA line.
Resistance level: 96.35, 97.05
Support level: 95.80, 95.50
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded flat near the support level of 1.2570. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for further signal before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.2630, 1.2670
Support level: 1.2575, 1.2515
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a sideways channel. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for further signals before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.1305, 1.1345
Support level: 1.1275, 1.1210
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a narrowing triangle formation. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 108.25, 108.50
Support level: 107.70, 107.30
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7040, 0.7110
Support level: 0.7005, 0.6960
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle formation. Both MACD and Stochastic which illustrate rebound signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.6710, 0.6765
Support level: 0.6655, 0.6590
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing at the support level near 1.3050. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.3050.
Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3220
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2970
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing at the support level of 0.9835. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.9835.
Resistance level: 0.9890, 0.9970
Support level: 0.9835, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extend its losses after breaking the trendline formation.
Resistance level: 57.25, 58.85
Support level: 55.70, 53.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests its price to extend further up in mid-term, in tandem within upward trendline.
Resistance level: 1435.00, 1448.00
Support level: 1415.00, 1390.00