5 October 2017 Daily Analysis
Yellen mums the word, greenback awaits NFP.
Australian dollar dipped during early Asian trading on Thursday, ensuing from a pessimistic retail sales performance while market participants look ahead for the latest reading of US jobless claims prior to highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report. Selling pressure was invoked upon the Aussie after Bureau of Statistics reported a decline in retail sales by -0.6% versus forecast of 0.3%. The data reflects some sluggishness in consumer spending which may hinder the progression of national inflationary pressure. As such, pair of AUD/USD tumbles 0.37% to $0.7833.
In the US region, the dollar index extended overnight gains by 0.07% to 93.32 over the backdrop of optimistic economic data. With regards to private payrolls, ADP reported an addition of 135,000 jobs in the month of September, beating economist forecast of only 125,000. Similarly, Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported an uptick in national non-manufacturing sector activity to 59.8, its highest level since August 2005. The services sector is one of the main component for the US economy which accounts roughly 80% of US private sector GDP while an optimistic outcome has spurred expectation for more economic growth in the third quarter. However, dollar gains were remained capped after Fed Chair Janet Yellen avoided to comment on future economic outlook while leaving investors in limbo regarding her successor.
In the commodities front, crude oil price was down 0.20% to $49.88 a barrel following a surprise jump in US crude export. Although EIA reported a larger than expected draw in crude inventories, US crude exports rose to an all-time high of 2 million barrels per day, fanning for more concern upon the already oversupplied oil market. Otherwise, gold price was traded flat around $1,274.55 following reports that a dovish Federal Reserve Chair may be appointed next year.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CNY China – National Day
All Day HKD Hong Kong – Following day of Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
21:10 USD FOMC Member Powell Speaks
21:15 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
22:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:30 | AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | 0.0% | 0.3% | -0.6% |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 272K | 265K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Trade Balance (Aug) | -43.70B | -42.70B | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Trade Balance (Aug) | -3.04B | -2.60B | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) | -3.35 | 1.0% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a sideways formation following prior rebound from the strong support level near 1.3230. Such price action suggests short-term upside bias for the pair to extend its gains towards the 20-MA line (red). Otherwise, a clearer long-term direction would require a breakout from either side of the formation.
Resistance level: 1.3285, 1.3405
Support level: 1.3230, 1.3190
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded within a downward wedge following prior retracement from the top level. Its upside which compromises higher bearish pressure may suggest the pair to extend its downward momentum after closing below the support level of 1.1745.
Resistance level: 1.1795, 1.1850
Support level: 1.1745, 1.1700
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways formation following prior rebound from the strong support level of 112.35. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward signal may suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term. Otherwise, a breakout from either side is required for clearer long-term direction.
Resistance level: 113.15, 113.65
Support level: 112.35, 111.50
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended its losses following prior breakout from the support level of 50.05. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggest the price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction still skew towards downside bias.
Resistance level: 50.05, 51.10
Support level: 49.20, 48.35
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains under pressure following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). A higher selling pressure from the upside may suggest its prices to extend its downward momentum after successfully closing below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1281.05, 1290.00
Support level: 1270.65, 1263.00