5 November 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar-bull invigorates as NFP delivers.
Greenback rebounds from its session low last Friday following optimistic employment data which shows a sharp rebound last month. As of writing, the dollar index depreciates slightly by 0.15% to 96.26. According to the US Labor Department, the economy has added 250,000 jobs for the month of October, exceeding economist forecast of only 193,000 jobs. Likewise, wage growth came in within expectation at the rate of 0.2%, further cementing the outlook for higher inflationary pressure in the long-run if its rising pace persists. Overall, the optimistic jobs data has indicated that the labor market continued its resilience, underlining the case for further interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this coming December. On the other hand, pair of USD/CAD depreciates by 0.08% to 1.3100 during early Asian trading session. Last Friday, the pair rebounds sharply from its weekly low following downbeat employment data from Canada. For the month of October, Canada’s economy generated only 11,200 jobs, lesser than economist forecast of 12,700 jobs. However, gains on the pair remains limited after unemployment rate depreciates from 5.9% to 5.8%, indicating further tightening in Canada’s labor condition.
As for commodities market, crude oil price mends its losses by 0.22% to $62.95 per barrel. However, the current upside on its prices remains limited following growing worries over future economic weakness which may dial down market demand for the commodity. On the other hand, gold price appreciates by 0.10% to $1,234.17 a troy ounce following slight weakness of the US dollar this morning.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:10 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Oct) | 53.9 | 53.3 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Oct) | 62.4 | – | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 61.6 | 59.3 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the support level of 96.20. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the index to extend its gains after a successful rebound from the support of 96.20.
Resistance level: 96.60, 97.00
Support level: 96.20, 95.95
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3015. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the target at 1.2955.
Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2955, 1.2895
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from 1.1445. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support at 1.1385.
Resistance level: 1.1415, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1385, 1.1330
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 112.60. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the target of 113.30.
Resistance level: 113.30, 113.85
Support level: 112.95, 112.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 0.7250. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 0.7170.
Resistance level: 0.7205, 0.7250
Support level: 0.7170, 0.7135
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level of 0.6660. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6660, 0.6700
Support level: 0.6610, 0.6575
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remains traded within an ascending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the threshold at 1.3115.
Resistance level: 1.3115, 1.3155
Support level: 1.3080, 1.3050
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the support level of 1.0025. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful rebound from 1.0025.
Resistance level: 1.0055, 1.0095
Support level: 1.0025, 0.9990
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a downtrend following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses after breaking the support level at 62.50.
Resistance level: 63.80, 65.45
Support level: 62.50, 61.05
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. However, MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests its price to extend its losses in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1237.25, 1242.10
Support level: 1228.00, 1215.95