5 December 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar revives as Brexit angst continues.
US dollar rebound from lows against other major currencies following a plunge in pound sterling. At the same time, safe-haven assets such as Japanese yen was well demanded after US President Donald Trump tweet raises fears that the trade war is not over. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted up 0.05% to 96.85 during Asian trading session. In his official twitter, Trump tweeted that he is a “Tariff Man”, reminding the market that he is not afraid to re-escalate trade tension with China. His tweet has sparked higher risk aversion in the market, scaling down market optimism that US-China trade war tension has subside following prior agreement to refrain from introducing new tariffs within 90 days. On the other hand, pound sterling rose sharply on yesterday after European official stated that UK could unilaterally cancel its withdrawal from EU, stoking higher hopes for a null-Brexit. However, the rally was short-lived and pound sterling plunged sharply after UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s government was defeated in the parliament and lawmakers received more power over the next Brexit steps if she fails to garner majority vote on December 11th. Pair of GBP/USD ticked down 0.02% to $1.2718.
In the commodities market, crude oil price recovered its losses by 0.38% to $52.71 per barrel. The commodity price was supported after two major oil pipelines linking Canada to US was hit by disruption, reducing the rate of oil supply for temporarily. Otherwise, gold price notched up 0.02% to $1,238.72 a troy ounce following higher risk aversion in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day USD Mourning – In Honour of George H.W. Bush
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Services PMI (Nov) | 53.3 | 53.3 | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Nov) | 52.2 | 52.5 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3) | 1.2% | 1.2% | – |
| 22:45 | USD – Services PMI (Nov) | 54.4 | 54.4 | – |
| 22:45 | USD – Markit Composite PMI (Nov) | 54.4 | 54.4 | – |
| 23:00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing at the upper level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after breaking the top level of the channel.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40
Support level: 96.80, 96.60
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term towards the direction of 1.2690.
Resistance level: 1.2725, 1.2770
Support level: 1.2690, 1.2640
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the top level of symmetry triangle. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.1310.
Resistance level: 1.1360, 1.1410
Support level: 1.1310, 1.1265
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 112.60. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 112.95, 113.30
Support level: 112.60, 112.10
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of ascending channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.7300.
Resistance level: 0.7340, 0.7390
Support level: 0.7300, 0.7265
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6940, 0.7000
Support level: 0.6890, 0.6830
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.3155. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3285.
Resistance level: 1.3285, 1.3320
Support level: 1.3255, 1.3210
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 1.0000.
Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0040
Support level: 0.9955, 0.9930
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior false breakout at 53.90. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses in short-term, towards the target of 52.00.
Resistance level: 53.90, 55.35
Support level: 52.00, 50.25
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1242.10. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1237.25, 1242.10
Support level: 1228.00, 1220.00