6 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback aboard the bullish train.
Greenback edged higher against other major peers after US economic data shows a rebound in housing and services activity. The dollar index rose 0.18% to 96.71 as of writing. According to Institute for Supply Management, its non-manufacturing PMI for the month of February rose to 59.7, beating economist forecast for a reading of 57.3. Services sector is a crucial component for the US and it accounts for more than 80% of its Gross Domestic Product. In the housing front, US Commerce Department reported that new home sales rose 3.7% to an annual rate of 621,000 units for the month of December. The data was well above economists’ forecast for a decline of 8.7% to 600,000 units. Both reports have induced higher optimism among market participants while dialing down fears of a slowdown in the US economy. However, gains on the greenback remains limited after several members of Federal Reserve chime in with dovish remarks, expressing their support to adopt ‘wait-and-see” approach on future monetary policy. In the UK, pair of GBP/USD depreciates by 0.20% to 1.3149. Pound sterling caught itself with bearish pressure after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney delivered a bearish assessment with regards to UK economy outlook. In a testimonial given before the House of Lords, Carney commented that the market path for interest rate may not be high enough while noting a degree of slack which is opening up in the UK economy.
In the commodities section, crude oil price ticked down by 0.02% to $56.20 per barrel. Oil prices was traded mixed since Monday while investors wait for further market signals with regards to US-China trade talks and US crude inventories level. On the other hand, gold price slumped 0.03% to $1,287.62 a troy ounce due to diminishing market risks and appreciating greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 21:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) | 213K | 189K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Trade Balance (Dec) | -49.30B | -57.90B | – |
| 23:00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | – |
| 23:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Feb) | 54.7 | 55.1 | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – EIA Crude Oil Inventories | -8.647M | 1.203M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. Although MACD illustrate diminishing downward momentum, a close above 96.80 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 96.80, 97.00
Support level: 96.65, 96.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3170, 1.3235
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2880
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to experience technical correction in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.1310, 1.1360
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1230
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the upper level of ascending channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 112.20, 112.80
Support level: 111.45, 111.00
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 0.7070. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.7105, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7055
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance near 0.6800. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful closure above 0.6800.
Resistance level: 0.6800, 0.6820
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6735
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior closure above 1.3325. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3360, 1.3455
Support level: 1.3325, 1.3280
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1.0040. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.0070, 1.0095
Support level: 1.0040, 1.0005
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout from the bottom level of narrowing triangle. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to advance further down, towards the direction of 55.85.
Resistance level: 56.45, 57.45
Support level: 55.60, 55.15
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1280.20. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1294.00, 1305.60
Support level: 1280.20, 1267.30