6 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Yen dominates market, dollar remained pressured.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currencies edged higher by 0.07% to 97.26 on early Monday after losing its gains on Friday amid poor wage data. Last Friday, US released their monthly Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data with a higher than expected reading as well as a lower unemployment rate. Both bullish data failed to kept dollar at its high level as investors reacted towards the poor Average Hourly Earnings data which came in at 3.2% vs 3.3%. The slowdown in wage growth indicated a possibly lower spending which will affect the inflation level for the long-run. This spiraled uncertainties in the market and heightened the possibility for future rate cut by Federal Reserve by this year. Besides that, greenback was further pressured by President Trump’s threat for tariff hike on Chinese goods. Last Sunday, China was pressured to reach a deal when Trump threatened to increase tariffs on another $200 billion worth of Chinese goods this week if no deal were met. The major shift in tone from Trump caused investors to exit the dollar market and enter into safe-haven Yen and gold market. As of writing, pair of USDJPY was down by 0.61% to 110.40.
As for commodities, crude oil price plunged 2.36% to $60.34 per barrel amid Trump’s tariff threat on another $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. The threat caused a major sell-off in oil market as investors fear that the tension in trade war will further drag the demand for crude oil. Besides that, according to US Baker Hughes, last week rig count was increased by 2 to 807, signaling increasing oil production in the US market. Likewise, gold price extended its gains by 0.45% to $1284.70 a troy ounce amid trade war uncertainties which caused investors to flee into safe-haven gold.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day UK Early May Bank Holiday
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
01:45 (7th) CAD Boc Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Services PMI (Apr) | 55.6 | 55.6 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – Markit Composite PMI (Apr) | 51.3 | 51.3 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Services PMI (Apr) | 52.5 | 52.5 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 97.60. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 97.05.
Resistance level: 97.60, 98.00
Support level: 97.05, 96.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3190. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3105.
Resistance level: 1.3190, 1.3270
Support level: 1.3105, 1.3015
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1180. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1215.
Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1245
Support level: 1.1180, 1.1115
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 110.35. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 110.35.
Resistance level: 110.90, 111.50
Support level: 110.35, 109.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6995. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6950.
Resistance level: 0.6995, 0.7035
Support level: 0.6950, 0.6900
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 0.6645. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6585.
Resistance level: 0.6645, 0.6675
Support level: 0.6585, 0.6550
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3470. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the support level 1.3520.
Resistance level: 1.3520, 1.3570
Support level: 1.3470, 1.3430
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.0160. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.0200, 1.0230
Support level: 1.0160, 1.0115
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 60.35. MACD which display persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 61.75, 62.85
Support level: 60.35, 58.40
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1279.50. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1287.00
Resistance level: 1287.00, 1296.40
Support level: 1279.50, 1269.40