6 July 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar under pressure as Fed thread cautiously.
US dollar remained subjected to bearish momentum during North American trading hours while investors digest recent release of FOMC meeting minutes which depicts a rather cautious tone. Majority of the participants noted recent consistency in regional economic growth and deeming it as “very strong” has cemented investors prospect for further rate hike beyond Federal Reserve’s neutral rate target. However, a handful number of the members expressed their concern over recent trade policy tension which had intensified and may lead to a possible slowdown in global economic growth. Higher uncertainty and risks may garner negative effects on regional business sentiment and investment spending. Otherwise, Euro recovered some losses as recent data shows diminishing downside upon Germany’s economic progression. For the month of May, German Factory Orders grew by 2.6% versus economic forecast of 1.1%. The data has reduced the anxiety among investors following prior series of data which signals possible economic slowdown. As of writing, dollar index was down 0.11% to 94.07 while pair of EUR/USD notched up 0.02% to $1.1692.
As for commodities, crude oil price extended its losses by 0.38% to $72.96 per barrel after EIA reported that US crude stockpiles rose by 1.245 million barrels last week, confounding expectation to reduce by 5.200 million barrels. Subsequently, gold price was traded flat around $1,257.68 a troy ounce while market participants anticipate the release of Nonfarm Payrolls report due later tonight.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (May) | -1.0% | 0.3% | – |
| 15:30 | GBP – Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Jun) | 1.5% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) | 0.35 | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) | 223K | 220K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 3.8% | 3.8% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Jun) | -7.5K | 24.0K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 5.85 | 5.8% | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Jun) | 62.5 | 63.2 | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 858 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance level at 1.3260. MACD histogram which illustrate persistent downward signal suggests further bearish bias. However, a close below 1.3210 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3310
Support level: 1.3210, 1.3145
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within an ascending channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. However, both MACD and Stochastic Oscillator which portrays bearish bias suggest the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.1710, 1.1740
Support level: 1.1680, 1.1630
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a tight range that are subjected to 110.55 and 110.75. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 110.70, 111.00
Support level: 110.55, 110.30
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price extended losses following prior breakout at support level of 72.80. Both MA line and MACD histogram which illustrate downward signal suggest the commodity price to advance further down, towards the direction of 72.25.
Resistance level: 73.80, 73.60
Support level: 72.25, 71.15
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from 1257.50. MACD histogram which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to extend its losses in short-term, towards the direction of 1254.00.
Resistance level: 1257.50, 1260.00
Support level: 1254.00, 1249.15