6 August 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Safe-haven thrives as tension escalates.
Market participants remains fixated upon safe-haven assets such as Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc following heightened tensions in between US and China. On yesterday, the US Treasury Department announced officially to label China as a currency manipulator after People’s Bank of China allowed the Chinese yuan to fall below RMB7 per dollar in retaliation against new US tariffs. The department commented that China has violated its commitment to refrain from competitive devaluation of currency as a part of Group of 20 industrialized countries. In addition, Beijing announced that it will stop purchasing US agricultural products, inflaming the current trade tension with the United States. Such retaliation came after US President Donald Trump announced to impose an additional of 10% tariffs upon $300 billion Chinese imports starting from 1st September. The news has raised higher risk aversion in the market with traders pouring into safe-haven in order to safeguard their capital from further losses. As of writing, USD/JPY fell 0.27% to 105.67 while USD/CHF tumbles by 0.16% to 0.9718. On the other hand, greenback suffered from an extensive selloff over the backdrop of bearish economic data. For the month of July, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.7, missing economist forecast for a rise to 55.5. Services industry is one of the major drivers for the US economy and its contraction has sent bearish sentiment across the market. The dollar index was quoted down 0.70% to 97.24.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 1.37% to $54.12 per barrel. Oil futures received tremendous selling pressure following rising tension in between US and China that could jeopardize future economic growth and its demand towards crude oil. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.57% to $1,472.28 a troy ounce due to higher risk aversion in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug) | 1.00% | 1.00% | – |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun) | -2.2% | 0.5% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Jun) | 7.323M | 7.450M | – |
| 04:30 (7th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -6.024M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 96.95. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the index to extend its losses after closing below 96.95.
Resistance level: 97.80, 99.00
Support level: 96.95, 96.00
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within an ascending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.2245, 1.2360
Support level: 1.2150, 1.2080
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout at 1.1220. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.1265.
Resistance level: 1.1265, 1.1330
Support level: 1.1220, 1.1170
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower after closing below 106.50. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of support level at 104.85.
Resistance level: 106.50, 108.80
Support level: 104.85, 103.15
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support level of 0.6760. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6760.
Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6925
Support level: 0.6760, 0.6675
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6520. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 0.6590.
Resistance level: 0.6590, 0.6655
Support level: 0.6520, 0.6480
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within a sideways channel formation. Due to the lack of signals from both MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3255
Support level: 1.3190, 1.3140
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.9700. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 0.9700.
Resistance level: 0.9820, 0.9970
Support level: 0.9700, 0.9580
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 53.75. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 55.00, 55.70
Support level: 53.75, 52.70
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance of 1471.50. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1483.50.
Resistance level: 1483.50, 1500.00
Support level: 1471.50, 1456.50