06 October 2017 Daily Analysis
Strong data supports Greenback ahead Non-farm Payroll.
Dollar index was traded higher against the other major currencies by 0.49%, last quoted at 93.77. The bullish momentum gained was due to a string of upbeat U.S. data recently, with initial jobless claims decreased by 260,000 last week more than the expected figures, narrowing of U.S. trade deficit in August when exporting activity in U.S. climbed to a two-and-a-half year high, as well as factory orders increased by 1.2%, much higher than the expected 1.0% increase. In addition, the dollar was further catalyzed after Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker mentioned that he is still planning to increase interest rate this year and three times more in the next year. On the other hand, pound sterling received further bearish pressure after reports showing negative sentiment toward current political uncertainty and Brexit’s progression in United Kingdom. According to research done by German BDI, their report mentioned that UK government did not have a proper Brexit plan until today after a few negotiations have been made with the European zone. They also warned businesses to be prepared for higher risks as exposed by Brexit due to possibility of major banks and large firms shifting their operations to Frankfurt, Germany if Britain lose its access to the bloc.
In the commodity market, crude oil price increased by 2% to $50.73 after Russian President Vladimir Putin stated a pledge by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other non-OPEC including Russia to reduce oil output could be postponed to the end of the 2018 instead of the previous expiration date standing in March 2018. Otherwise, gold price extended its losses by 0.06%, traded at $1269.10 a troy ounce, as a consequence of recent strengthening of the Greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:15 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
23:45 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
00:15 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
00:45 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
01:00 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) | -0.7% | 0.7% | – |
| 15:30 | GBP – Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Sep) | 1.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) | 156K | 90K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Sep) | 4.4% | 4.4% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (Aug) | -3.5% | – | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Sep) | 22.2K | 14.5K | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Sep) | 56.3 | 57.2 | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 750 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower prior breaking below 200-MA line and support level at 1.3175. Downward slope of MACD signal line suggests further increasing momentum for the pair to trade lower toward the next support level at 1.3025.
Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3240
Support level: 1.3025, 1.2940
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded in consolidation within descending triangle. Continuous upward trough as formed by MACD histogram suggests diminishing selling pressure and it indicates possible short-term momentum for the pair to trade higher toward resistance level at 1.1740.
Resistance level: 1.1740, 1.1820
Support level: 1.1690, 1.1615
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded within consolidation prior its retracement from resistance level at 113.00. Golden cross as formed by MACD signal line suggests upward bias for the pair. However, a breakout above the said resistance level is required for the pair to further increasing bullish momentum to trade higher.
Resistance level: 113.00, 113.55
Support level: 112.35, 111.65
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher prior its rebound from support level at 49.85. Formation of bearish hammer suggests possible downward bias, however, upward slope of MACD signal line does not support evidence for crude oil to trade lower at the mean time. It is advised to wait for further confirmation signal to trade the commodity.
Resistance level: 50.80, 51.45
Support level: 49.85, 49.10
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher prior its rebound from support level at 1267.75. Formation of hammer price pattern and MACD signal line which diverts upward suggests possible short-term bullish momentum for the price to trade higher toward the resistance level at 1272.55.
Resistance level: 1272.55, 1278.25
Support level: 1267.75, 1258.30