7 January 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar plunged following bearish speculation.
US dollar has weakened considerably during mid-Asian trading session as investors weigh the possibility of Federal Reserve in pausing their monetary policy tightening. As of writing, the dollar index depreciates by 0.20% to 95.50 against six major currencies. Risk appetite remains strong since early Asian trade following China’s aggressive monetary easing to address sharp economic slowdown and hopes of a trade war resolution between US and China. Last Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed that the Feds are not on a pre-set path of interest rate hike and it is sensitive towards downside risks that the market are currently pricing in. Despite a stronger than expected December jobs data, many analyst postulates that the world’s largest economy might lose its momentum and monetary tightening might be jeopardized. For the week ahead, investors will be placing their attention upon the first face-to-face talks between US President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping with regards to trade war for further market signals. On the other hand, pair of USD/CAD extended its losses by 0.09% to 1.3360 as of writing. Canadian dollar received higher demand following a sharp recovery in global oil prices.
In the commodities market, crude oil price extended gains by 0.71% to $48.55 per barrel. Oil prices received broad support following a possible resolution in trade war between US and China while supply cuts continue to diminish the downside risk of the commodity. Subsequently, gold price rose 0.33% to $1,289.01 a troy ounce following weaker US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 18:00 | EUR – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) | 0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) | 60.7 | 59.6 | – |
| 23:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Dec) | 57.2 | 58.1 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior closure below 95.80. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses after closing below the strong support near 95.50.
Resistance level: 95.80, 96.50
Support level: 95.50, 95.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior closure above 1.2700. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish bias signal suggests the pair to extend its gains and move towards the direction of 1.2770.
Resistance level: 1.2770, 1.2900
Support level: 1.2700, 1.2630
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout at the resistance level near 1.1410. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.1450.
Resistance level: 1.1450, 1.1475
Support level: 1.1410, 1.1360
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance level near 108.40. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses, in tandem with overall bearish trend.
Resistance level: 108.40, 109.60
Support level: 106.75, 106.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound while currently testing near the threshold of 0.7145. MACD which illustrate persistent upward signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.7145.
Resistance level: 0.7145, 0.7255
Support level: 0.7070, 0.6990
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior closure above 0.6710. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of downward trendline.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout at the support level of 1.3380. MACD which illustrate persistent downward signal and momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the direction of 1.3315.
Resistance level: 1.3380, 1.3430
Support level: 1.3315, 1.3255
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 0.9840. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to move further downwards after breaking the target of 0.9840.
Resistance level: 0.9870, 0.9905
Support level: 0.9840, 0.9800
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price advanced further upwards after a successful rebound from 47.50. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggests its prices to advance further up in mid-term, towards the direction of 49.50.
Resistance level: 49.50, 50.25
Support level: 47.50, 45.40
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1284.35. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its prices to advance further up, towards the direction of 1303.00.
Resistance level: 1303.00, 1314.45
Support level: 1284.35, 1263.20