7 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback accelerates with bullish trade data.
US dollar extended gains while hitting its highest level in two weeks following bullish trade balance data from the region. The dollar index was quoted up 0.33%, last seen around 96.11 during Asian trading session. According to reports released on yesterday, the trade deficit which measure the gap between US imports and exports has narrowed to $49.3 billion in November, substantially lower than $55.70 billion on the prior month. The upbeat trade data has provided bullish trajectory on the dollar as market participants has fully digested bearish signals given by the US Federal Reserve since two-weeks ago. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD slumped by 0.04% to 1.1368 as of writing. The single common currency hit two-weeks low against the greenback after Germany Factory Orders data came in lower than expected, showing broader perspective of economic weakness while hinting possible recession. This may delay any monetary policy tightening efforts from the European Central Banks if the current recessive condition persists past autumn 2019.
In the commodities market, crude oil price ticked down 0.05% to $53.76 per barrel. Oil prices received some bearish pressure after reports shows that crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma has reached its highest level since January 2018. Similarly, gold price depreciates by 0.02% to $1,307.51 a troy ounce due to bullish US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day HKD Hong Kong – Lunar New Year
All Day CNY China – Spring Festival
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
17:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
18:00 EUR EU Economic Forecast
20:00 GBP MPC Inflation Report
20:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) | -1.9% | 0.7% | – |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb) | 0.75% | 0.75% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 253K | 221K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior closure above 96.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to advance further up, towards the direction of resistance level near 96.30.
Resistance level: 96.30, 96.65
Support level: 96.00, 95.50
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1.2930. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target of 1.2930.
Resistance level: 1.2990, 1.3060
Support level: 1.2930, 1.2855
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 1.1355. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 1.1355.
Resistance level: 1.1415, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1355, 1.1300
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the top level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower following a successful retracement from the top level.
Resistance level: 110.00, 110.50.
Support level: 109.55, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD extended its losses after closing below 0.7170. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7275
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7015
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below the support level at 0.6780. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6710.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6820
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1.3220. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the target at 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3280
Support level: 1.3175, 1.3115
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior closure above the resistance at 1.0000. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0080
Support level: 1.0000, 0.9970
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a descending channel following prior retrace from the upper level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower, after closing below 53.70.
Resistance level: 54.40, 55.20
Support level: 53.70, 52.80
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior closure below 1313.80. MACD which illustrate persistent downward signal suggests its prices to extend its losses after successfully closing below 1305.40.
Resistance level: 1313.80, 1321.20
Support level: 1305.40, 1295.55