7 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar muted ahead of NFP, pessimism looms.
Euro hovers near weekly high on Friday following the release of European Central Bank’s meeting minutes which showed that officials discussed the possibility to reduce easing bias from their monetary policy. EUR/USD ticked down 0.03% and last quoted around $1.1418. ECB policymakers postulate that it is important to stress the stronger momentum of the euro zone recovery while emphasizing that inflation pressure remained subdued. Officials were concerned that even a “small and incremental” changes to their forward guidance may spook the financial market and thus in tandem with ECB President Mario Draghi’s prior remarks to further look through possibilities on unwinding loose policies before execution. Otherwise, the dollar index was held steady at 95.56 following overnight slump due to weak private jobs report. Investors was agitated about the strength of US economy following a weaker-than-expected initial jobless claims and private sector job creation which may suggest a possible slowdown in labor market activity.
On the other hand, crude oil price skidded 1.43% to $44.83 following reports that US crude exports rose to 1.02 million barrels per day in May which put further pressure on global supply glut. Similarly, gold price depreciates by 0.10% to $1,221.01 due to higher US yields prior to the release of Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
Tentative GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | GBP – Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Jun) | 0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May) | 0.2% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) | 138K | 179K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 4.3% | 4.3% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Jun) | 54.5K | 10.0K | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Jun) | 53.8 | – | – |
| 01:00 | Crude Oil – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 756 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was thinly traded near the strong resistance level of 1.2970 following prior closure above the 20-moving average line (red). MACD histogram which begins to form upward signal suggests GBPUSD to extend its upward momentum after closing above the level of 1.2970.
Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3030
Support level: 1.2910, 1.2850
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD pared prior gains following a retrace from the resistance level of 1.1425. Currently, it is suggested to skew towards downside bias with EURUSD expected to advance towards the support level of 1.1400.
Resistance level: 1.1425, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1400, 1.1375
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the top level. Both moving average line which continues to expand upwards after forming golden cross suggests higher chances for a breakout to occur and signal a change in trend direction to move further upwards.
Resistance level: 113.90, 114.70
Support level: 112.70, 111.80
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following previous retracement from the resistance level of 46.05. Referring to the MACD histogram which illustrate substantial downward signal, a closure below the strong support level of 44.65 would suggest crude oil price to extend its losses.
Resistance level: 45.30, 44.05
Support level: 44.65, 44.05
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level of 1222.30. Stochastic Oscillator displays further retracement from the oversold region suggests gold price to advance further down, towards the support level of 1217.00.
Resistance level: 1222.30, 1228.00
Support level: 1217.00, 1211.00