7 August 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar bull remains solid as trade war remains concerned.
Dollar index remains firm against its basket of six major currency pairs following with recent escalation on trade conflict. With the latest salvo by US president Donald Trump which plans to increase more tariff on the Chinese imports that worth $200 billion, Chinese state media has hit back on the threat, accusing him of orchestrating a “street fighter style deceitful drama” and China also vow to retaliate to impose 25%, 20% and 5% on US products if US followed through. However, risk sentiment among investors are towards the greenback given its economic strength and nations economy as investors predict the dollar would fare better in trade war. Investors will remain focus to witness how the situation will play out and also keeping a close watch on US economic data for this week to determine further direction. Dollar index was edge higher 0.02% to 95.26 as of writing. Meanwhile, GBP/USD slipped 0.03% to 1.2938 at the time of writing amid negative response in Brexit Progress. UK International Trade Secretary, Liam Fox has stated the likelihood of UK leaving EU without a trade deal is “60-40” added also with recent BoE Governor Mark Carney supporting the claim stated the possibility of no trade deal scenario is “uncomfortably high”. Investor will remain on alert in the progress of UK-EU Brexit to determine its further prospect.
In the commodities market, the price of crude oil has gained 0.03% to $68.90 a barrel amid reports of sluggish production from Arab Saudi. According to the reports from Reuters, Arab Saudi has only pumped around 10.29m barrels in July, lower than its previous production which is around 200,000 for the month before. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, of which Saudi Arabia is the de factor leader has agreed to raise output by an increase of 1 million barrels per day following by recent pressure from the U.S to cut prices. On the other hand, gold has slip 0.03% to 1212.97 as of writing amid dollar strength which is bolstered by investor’s speculation of gradual rate hike and the progress of ongoing trade war.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12.30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12.30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 14.00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM)(Jun) | 2.6% | -0.5% | – |
| 14.00 | EUR – German Trade Balance (Jun) | 20.3B | 21.4B | – |
| 15.30 | GBP – Halifax House Price Index (YoY) | 1.8% | 2.7% | – |
| 22.00 | USD – JOLTs Job Opening | 6.638M | 6.740M | – |
| 22.00 | CAD – Ivey PMI | 63.1 | 64.2 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.2920. Although MACD which display bullish signal with the golden cross formation, a breakout above the trend line is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1.2975, 1.3025
Support level: 1.2920, 1.2865
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the trend line and also rebound from the support level 1.1550. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair may extend its gains toward the resistance level 1.1580.
Resistance level: 1.1580, 1.1605
Support level: 1.1580, 1.1555
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower which currently testing near the support level 111.20. Although MACD display signs of bearish signal, a breakout below the support level 111.20 is required for further confirmation.
Resistance level: 111.55, 111.90
Support level: 111.25, 110.90
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: The price of crude oil was traded higher following recent rebound from the trend line. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair may extend its gains if it breaks above the resistance level 69.25.
Resistance level: 69.25, 69.80
Support level: 68.55, 67.90
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remain traded in symmetrical triangle following prior rebound from the bottom level of the triangle. Recent price action and MACD which signals bullish momentum with golden cross formation suggest the pair may be traded higher towards the top of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1213.00, 1218.00
Support level: 1206.00, 1200.00