7 December 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar, oil tumbles as bears regain control.
US dollar losses its grounds against other major currencies on yesterday as domestic jobs data fell short of forecast, keeping a cap over US government bond yields. The dollar index was quoted down 0.29%, last seen around 96.67 during Asian trading sessions. According to ADP, private payrolls for the month of November came in at only 179,000, missing economists forecast for a reading of up to 225,000. The data which has significant correlation with tonight’s Nonfarm Payrolls has dialed down investor’s optimism towards US labor market. At the same time, the bearish data has kept a lid over 10-year Treasury yield near three-months low, weighing further on the US dollar. As Federal Reserve policymakers are widely expected to raise interest rates again in the coming weeks, investors’ attention will shift towards future economic releases and Fed’s statement for further signal with regards to next year’s rate hike cycle. On the other hand, Canadian dollar received fresh selloff following weaker commodity prices and bearish remarks from Bank of Canada’s Governor Stephen Poloz. According to Poloz, he reiterated prior dovish stance during interest rate decision, indicating little enthusiasm to speed up the pace of interest rate hike from current levels. As of writing, loonie (USD/CAD) tacked up 0.08% to 1.3394.
In the commodities market, crude oil price extended its losses by 0.27% to $51.44 per barrel. Oil prices tumbled down by more than 3% on yesterday after Russian counterpart remained silence over oil production cuts that OPEC has suggested prior. During the meeting held in Vienna, Saudi Arabia reiterated that the main scenario is to push for an output cut but no decision has been made as to date. Such reports have dialed down investors’ confidence for an agreement to be reached by the end of Friday. On the other hand, gold price ticked down 0.03% to $1,237.49 a troy ounce as higher interest rates in the United States capped any substantial gains on the non-yielding asset.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 18:00 | EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) | 250K | 200K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Nov) | 3.7% | 3.7% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Nov) | 11.2K | 10.3K | – |
| 02:00
(7th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 887 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound near 96.60. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the direction of 96.80.
Resistance level: 96.80, 97.00
Support level: 96.60, 96.20
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2835, 1.2895
Support level: 1.2770, 1.2725
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement near 1.1410. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1450
Support level: 1.1360, 1.1310
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the downward trendline.
Resistance level: 112.95, 113.30
Support level: 112.60, 112.10
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 0.7215. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7265, 0.7300
Support level: 0.7215, 0.7170
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the upward trendline. MACD which illustrates diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains in the event of a successful rebound from the trendline.
Resistance level: 0.6890, 0.6940
Support level: 0.6830, 0.6780
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1.3430. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3430, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3380, 1.3315
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level of 0.9930. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.9930.
Resistance level: 0.9930, 0.9955
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level of 52.00. MACD which illustrate persistent downward signal suggests its price to extend its losses, towards the direction of 50.25.
Resistance level: 52.00, 53.90
Support level: 50.25, 49.50
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within an upward channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its price to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1242.10.
Resistance level: 1242.10, 1253.00
Support level: 1237.25, 1228.00