8 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Safe-haven dominates market, supported by dovish ECB.
The safe-haven market preferably dollar, gold and Japanese Yen strengthened amid uncertainties spiraled from the European market when ECB Press Conference took a dovish stance towards their policy tightening which were expected during mid-autumn this year. After pushing the interest rate hike till at least end of this year and the introduction of ECB’s stimulus Targeted Long-term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) beginning September, both scenarios have caused investors to largely sell-off euro while escaping into safe dollar market. Yesterday’s announcement of lower Jobless Claims data further supported the dollar, surging to its mid-December high. On the other hand, safe-haven Japanese Yen was also holding its stance amid market uncertainties while earlier announcement of Japan GDP which exceeds economists’ expectations of 0.4% by 0.1% to 0.5% further supported the Yen. As of writing, dollar index retraced by 0.12% to 97.45 while pair of USD/JPY was down by 0.29% to 111.25 while investors remained cautious ahead of today’s NFP.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.23% to $56.25 per barrel amid uncertainties towards oil demand as China cuts its’ economic growth target and slowdown in Europe economic growth. However, fall in oil prices was still limited due to OPEC’s continuous glut cut. Otherwise, gold prices gained by 0.20% to $1,288.00 a troy ounce as market remained cautious ahead of NFP.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) | -1.6% | 0.5% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) | 304K | 181K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 4.0% | 3.9% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Building Permits (Jan) | 1.326M | 1.289M | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Feb) | 66.8K | 0.3K | – |
| 02:00
(9th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 843 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 97.60. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 97.15.
Resistance level: 97.60, 98.25
Support level: 97.15, 96.80
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3090. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction and rebound from the support level towards the resistance level 1.3205.
Resistance level: 1.3205, 1.3285
Support level: 1.3090, 1.2975
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.1175. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1215.
Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1260
Support level: 1.1175, 1.1125
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 111.10. MAC which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 112.10, 112.70
Support level: 111.10, 110.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.7005. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.7055, 0.7085
Support level: 0.7005, 0.6950
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 0.6765. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6725.
Resistance level: 0.6765, 0.6800
Support level: 0.6725, 0.6680
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3440. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower as a short term technical correction back below the support level 1.3375.
Resistance level: 1.3505, 1.3570
Support level: 1.3440, 1.3375
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.0115. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.0085.
Resistance level: 1.0115, 1.0170
Support level: 1.0085, 1.0055
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded in sideway channel. Due to lack of momentum and clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as breakout above the resistance level or below the support level for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 57.50, 59.20
Support level: 55.60, 54.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded flat in sideway channel. Due to lack of momentum from MACD, a breakout above the resistance level or below the support level is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1289.35, 1295.15
Support level: 1284.10, 1278.90