8 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Euro nosedived into the abyss.
Euro was sold off tremendously during North American trading hours following seemingly dovish stance taken by the European Central Bank (ECB). As of writing, pair of EUR/USD extended its overnight losses by 0.03% to 1.1193, its lowest level in 20 months. In a statement released by ECB, the central bank pushed back its expectation for an interest rate hike to at least the end of the year, shattering investor’s hope for the beginning of monetary policy tightening which was hinted to start autumn this year. Moreover, ECB slashed its economic projection as expected for year 2019 from 1.7% to 1.1%, a drop of 0.6% from previous forecast which were released three months ago. The dramatic cut was made due to global economic uncertainty, trade tensions and regional risks which continues to brew. To counter which possible growth slowdown in the EU zone, ECB announced a new economic stimulus known as Targeted Long-term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) which will begin in September 2019. The package is intended to expand banking institutions existing stimulus in order to inject liquidity into the EU financial system while avoiding credit crunch during economic downturn. In a press conference following ECB’s policy decision, President Mario Draghi stated that the persistence of uncertainties would leave a mark on economic sentiment and risks which surrounds EU area are still tilted to the downside. As of writing, the dollar index rose 0.75% to 97.50 while pair of USD/JPY flattens at 111.59.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.09% to $56.45 per barrel. Oil prices oscillate within a tight range while traders monitor contradicting signals with regards to oil demand and supply in the market. Otherwise, gold prices threaded water at around $1,285.66 a troy ounce as investors await the release of Nonfarm Payrolls report scheduled for tonight.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) | -1.6% | 0.5% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) | 304K | 181K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 4.0% | 3.9% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Building Permits (Jan) | 1.326M | 1.289M | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Feb) | 66.8K | 0.3K | – |
| 02:00
(9th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 843 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Weekly: Dollar index remains traded within an ascending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to extend its gains in short-term, towards 97.80.
Resistance level: 97.80, 99.10
Support level: 95.95, 95.00
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.3100. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.3010.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3170
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2880
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD extended its losses following prior breakout at the bottom level of descending wedge. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.1125.
Resistance level: 1.1220, 1.1300
Support level: 1.1125, 1.1000
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 111.45. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains following a closure above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 112.20, 112.80
Support level: 111.45, 111.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6995.
Resistance level: 0.7030, 0.7090
Support level: 0.6995, 0.6925
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6790, 0.6820
Support level: 0.6745, 0.6720
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retrace from the upper levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3370
USDCHF, Weekly: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance level of 1.0095. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above this level.
Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0180
Support level: 0.9900, 0.9765
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel while recently retraced from the mid-level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 56.45, 57.45
Support level: 55.60, 55.15
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a tight range as of recent. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1294.00, 1305.60
Support level: 1280.20, 1267.30