8 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar pressured by trade concerns, Yen gains.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currencies edged down lower by 0.06% to 97.27 after climbing to higher levels supported by strong job data on Tuesday. According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTs Job Openings data came in higher than expected with a reading of 7.488M vs 7.350M, further indicating a strong labor market right after last Friday’s release of Nonfarm Payroll data. However, dollar gains were limited following a large demand for the safe-haven Yen amid escalating trade war tensions. Despite the trade talks continuing this week, US trade representative Robert Lighthizer criticized China for backtracking on their commitments and also reaffirmed President Trump’s threat to increase tariff from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods which would take immediate effect on Friday. As the week comes closer to the deadline, market uncertainties caused investors to seek shelter for their investment in the safe-haven Yen, extending the losses of USD/JPY by 0.12% to 110.10 as of writing.
As for commodities, crude oil price rebounded by 0.29% to $61.57 per barrel after plunging more than 2% yesterday amid concerns on trade war tensions. The oil market continues to be pressured after President Trump threatened to increase the 10% tariff on $200 billion Chinese goods to 25% by Friday if no deal is reached by this week. On the other hand, gold price edged higher by 0.11% to $1285.80 a troy ounce amid increased demand for safe-haven assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
11:00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference
19:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 11:00 | CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Apr) | 32.67B | 33.70B | – |
| 13:45 | CHF – Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Apr) | 2.5% | 2.3% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 9.934M | 1.215M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded flat following recent retracement from its high level. However, due to lack of momentum and clear direction from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further clear signal appear such as breakout above the resistance level 97.60 or below the support level 97.05 before entering the market.
Resistance level: 97.60, 98.00
Support level: 97.05, 96.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the MA line 50 (blue). MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3105.
Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3190
Support level: 1.3015, 1.2960
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1180. However, due to lack of momentum and clear direction from MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 1.1215 or below the support level 1.1180 is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1245
Support level: 1.1180, 1.1115
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 110.35. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 109.60.
Resistance level: 110.35, 110.90
Support level: 109.60, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6995. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7035.
Resistance level: 0.7035, 0.7065
Support level: 0.6995, 0.6965
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6585. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6645.
Resistance level: 0.6645, 0.6675
Support level: 0.6585, 0.6550
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3470. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1.3430.
Resistance level: 1.3470, 1.3520
Support level: 1.3430, 1.3395
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.0200. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.0160.
Resistance level: 1.0200, 1.0230
Support level: 1.0160, 1.0115
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 61.75. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 61.75, 62.85
Support level: 60.35, 58.40
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1287.00. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1287.00, 1296.40
Support level: 1279.50, 1269.40