8 November 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar rebound amid election’s knee jerk reaction.
Greenback recouped part of its losses against a basket of six major currencies after hitting two week low amid market participants digested the bearish sentiment from U.S midterm election results. The election result were as the market expected where there is a split of Congress with Democratic winning the control of House Representatives and Republicans managed to retain the majority seats in Senate. Thus, Dollar index received strong selling pressures from the market as the likelihood of further fiscal stimulus faded. Besides, Democrats who surged to power in the house are prepare to launch an investigation into Donald Trump regarding to Trump’s long hidden tax returns, scandals between Russia and Trump’s campaign team in 2016 election and so on. On the other side, dollar rebound as investors start shifting away their focus from post-election result to the Fed’s monetary policy which will due on later today. As of now, the positive economic outlook growth in US has caused the Fed to raise their interest rate three times this year and Fed signaled a rate of rise in December with two more hikes by mid of 2019. As of writing, Dollar index spiked 0.25% to 96.00. On the other hand, pair of NZD/USD remained flat at 0.6780 amid RBNZ governor decided to cement their interest rate at 1.75% as economist forecast despite New Zealand is undergoing acceleration of inflation rate and low unemployment rates now.
In the commodities market, crude oil surged 0.18% to $61.65 per barrel amid OPEC and its allies may initiate output curbs next year in order to prevent global oversupply. On the other hand, gold tumbled 0.23% to 1223.55 amid Dollar’s recovery.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
17:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
Tentative EUR EU Economic Forecasts
03:00 (9th) USD FOMC Statement
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Trade Balance (Sep) | 18.3B | 18.0B | – |
| 21:15 | CAD – Housing Starts (Oct) | 188.7K | 200.0K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 214K | 214K | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Sep) | 0.0% | 0.1% | – |
| 03:00 (9th) | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 2.25% | 2.25% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 96.00. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the index to extend its gain after successfully breakout the resistance level at 96.00.
Resistance level: 96.00, 96.15
Support level: 95.70, 95.55
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3170. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3080.
Resistance level: 1.3170, 1.3250
Support level: 1.3080, 1.3025
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the upward trend line at 1.1425. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 1.1445.
Resistance level: 1.1445, 1.1465
Support level: 1.1410, 1.1370
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 113.70. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 113.70.
Resistance level: 113.70, 114.00
Support level: 113.40, 113.15
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7295. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 0.7295.
Resistance level: 0.7295, 0.7310
Support level: 0.7260, 0.7235
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 0.6790. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.6790.
Resistance level: 0.6790, 0.6810
Support level: 0.6755, 0.6730
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3120. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3100.
Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3140
Support level: 1.3100, 1.3075
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.0020. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 1.0020.
Resistance level: 1.0020, 1.0060
Support level: 0.9970, 0.9940
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 61.25. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 62.60.
Resistance level: 62.60, 63.75
Support level: 61.25, 60.80
GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 1228.45. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1220.80.
Resistance level: 1229.45, 1234.65
Support level: 1220.80, 1215.15