8 November 2018 Morning Session Analysis
A split in the Congress upsets US dollar.
US dollar tumbles against other major currencies on yesterday as investors scrutinize the US midterm election results while waiting for the conclusion of Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting due tomorrow morning. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to keep their interest rates unchanged while market participants place their focus upon their statements for further clues with regards to future monetary policy stance. Overnight, US dollar received tremendous selling pressure after US midterm results shows a split in the congress. From the results, Democrats regain their control of US House of Representatives while Republicans remain in charge of the Senate. The split within the government sparked bearish sentiment as House Democrats may launch multiple investigation over Trump’s finances and possibility of Russian collusion with a more aggressive manner. Likewise, a split in the government would place some difficulty over Trump’s administration as any law or policy passage would require an approval from the House before passing towards the Senate. Moreover, the midterm results have tempered some investor’s sentiment towards future economic projection from the Fed as it has possibility to dial down the aggressiveness of future rate hike due to difficulty to pass through economic package or stimulus with heavy scrutiny from the Democrats. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.11% while last quoted at 95.95 during Asian trading session.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.13% to $61.63 per barrel after US Special Representative Brian Hook commented that the government is determined to push Iranian oil exports to zero within the next six months. On the other hand, gold price was down 0.04% to $1,226.18 a troy ounce following a rebound in the US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
17:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
Tentative EUR EU Economic Forecasts
03:00 (9th) USD FOMC Statement
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Trade Balance (Sep) | 18.3B | 18.0B | – |
| 21:15 | CAD – Housing Starts (Oct) | 188.7K | 200.0K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 214K | 214K | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Sep) | 0.0% | 0.1% | – |
| 03:00 (9th) | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 2.25% | 2.25% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 96.20, 96.60
Support level: 95.95, 95.55
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.3175. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3275
Support level: 1.3100, 1.3015
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the upward trendline. While MACD illustrate a bearish signal, a break below the upward trendline is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1.1445, 1.1485
Support level: 1.1415, 1.1385
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance level at 113.30. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of next target at 113.85.
Resistance level: 113.85, 114.20
Support level: 113.30, 112.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher levels. MACD which begins to form a negative divergence signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7275, 0.7315
Support level: 0.7250, 0.7205
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 0.6805. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6805, 0.6850
Support level: 0.6735, 0.6700
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the support level of 1.3115. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful rebound from 1.3115.
Resistance level: 1.3155, 1.3210
Support level: 1.3155, 1.3080
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 0.9960. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the resistance near 1.0025.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0055
Support level: 0.9990, 0.9960
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 61.05. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the commodity price to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 62.50, 63.80
Support level: 61.05, 60.00
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1215.95.
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.25
Support level: 1215.95, 1206.00