9 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar remains pressured as market awaits U-S China meeting.
Dollar index have edge lower 0.03% to 97.31 at the time of writing against its basket of six major currency pairs following market awaiting trade developments between U.S and China. Trade war between two powerhouse U.S and China has recently return back to the spotlight as President Donald Trump have escalated the tension by threatening to levy tariffs on Chinese import worth $2 billion and also proposed to increase the tariff from 10% to 25%. In recent reports, China also threatens to retaliate to U.S tariff with a Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman have stated that if the U.S. tariff measures are implemented, China will have to take necessary countermeasures. Market will remain focused on the results of trade talk between the two countries which would happen later today as the deadline for the trade deal have almost reach to the end. On the other hand, GBP/USD also have slightly recovered from its low by 0.05% to 1.3010 as of writing as political uncertainty in U.K have receded for now. In recent reports from Financial Times, U.K Prime Minister Theresa May promised to have fresh Brexit deal on the parliament’s voting table in the next two week which have help ease heightening concerns in the Brexit uncertainty.
As for commodities, crude oil price dips 0.52% to $61.63 per barrel at the time of writing despite crude inventories draw surprise. According to EIA, inventory level have slumped by -3.963M which is better than market expectation with an inventory rise of 1.125M. However, market remains pessimistic as the sentiment was capped by worries that a breakdown in trade talks between the world’s top two economies will drag global growth lower which could affected the demand for the commodity, therefore pressuring the commodity price. On the other hand, gold price have also slip 0.12% to $1280.71 a troy ounce as of writing following investor have dumped on the commodity on profit taking.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20.30 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20.30 | USD – PPI | 0.6% | 0.2% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 230K | 215K | – |
| 20.30 | CAD – Trade Balance | -2.90B | -2.45B | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remain traded flat following recent rebound from the low levels. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 97.60
Resistance level: 97.60, 98.00
Support level: 97.05, 96.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3000. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 1.3100.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3190
Support level: 1.3000, 1.2940
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.1215. However, due to lack of momentum and clear direction from MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 1.1215 or below the support level 1.1180 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1245
Support level: 1.1180, 1.1115
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 110.35. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 109.60.
Resistance level: 110.35, 110.90
Support level: 109.70, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6965. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 0.6965.
Resistance level: 0.6995, 0.7035
Support level: 0.6965, 0.6900
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6585. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6510
Resistance level: 0.6585, 0.6645
Support level: 0.6510, 0.6460
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3475. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3520.
Resistance level: 1.3520, 1.3570
Support level: 1.3475, 1.3430
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.0200. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.0230.
Resistance level: 1.0230, 1.0305
Support level: 1.0200, 1.0160
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 61.75. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 60.35.
Resistance level: 61.75, 62.85
Support level: 60.35, 58.40
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1279.10. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1287.00, 1296.40
Support level: 1279.10, 1269.40