10 Januari 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Shaky dollar as Fed may pause rate hike.
US dollar remains under pressure prior to European Session as US Federal Reserve may pause their monetary policy tightening cycle this year. As discussed in the earlier report, minutes from Fed’s last month meeting revealed that several policymakers are in favor of keeping their interest rates on hold this year. The minutes has further reinforced market sentiment for a pause in rate hike due to diminishing economic momentum in the United States. In addition, optimism towards US-China trade talks has also encouraged investors to pay higher attention on non-dollar assets such as Australian dollar and Euro. A change in demand for currencies has placed further bearish pressure upon the greenback. On the other hand, Canadian dollar extended its rally on yesterday following a sharp rebound in oil prices. In addition, Bank of Canada’s assessment that further rate hike may be necessary propelled higher demand for the loonie. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.16% to 94.58 while pair of USD/CAD ticks down 0.02% to 1.3225.
Peering into commodities market, crude oil price tumbled 0.67% to $51.77 per barrel this afternoon. The commodity received some bearish momentum after report from EIA shows lesser-than-expected draw in crude oil stocks. On the other hand, gold price extended gains by 0.27% to $1,296.84 a troy ounce amid dollar’s weakness.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
01:00 (11th) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 231K | 225K | – |
| Tentative | USD – New Home Sales | 544K | 569K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 94.60. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.50
Support level: 94.60, 94.15
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1.2800. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards 1.2755.
Resistance level: 1.2800, 1.2860
Support level: 1.2755, 1.2630
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from a high level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum may suggest the pair to experience technical correction in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.1590, 1.1640
Support level: 1.1520, 1.1480
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, in tandem with overall bearish trend.
Resistance level: 108.40, 109.60
Support level: 106.75, 106.00
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7145. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.7255.
Resistance level: 0.7255, 0.7330
Support level: 0.7145, 0.7070
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 0.6780. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6780.
Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6890
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6710
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from its low level. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3270, 1.3325
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3120
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from low levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9765, 0.9835
Support level: 0.9665, 0.9620
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 52.75. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggest its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 52.75, 55.55
Support level: 50.50, 48.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from prior low at 1284.35. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests its prices to be traded higher in mid-term, after a successful closure at 1303.00.
Resistance level: 1303.00, 1314.45
Support level: 1284.35, 1263.20