10 April 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar wobbles following fresh global trade tensions.
Dollar index have pared its gains against a basket of six major currency pairs as investors’ fear heightened following new global trade dispute. According to recent reports, U.S Trade Representative have proposed a list of European Union products that ranging from large commercial aircraft to dairy products and wine which worth $11 billion to slap tariffs as a retaliation for European aircraft subsidies. At the same time, International Monetary Fund have also reduced its global growth forecast for 2019 to only 3.3 percent, the slowest expansion since 2016 when compared to its earlier projection of 3.5 percent. On the front, market remain focused on upcoming Fed meeting to determine further sentiment for the greenback Dollar index fell 0.02% to 96.58 as of writing. Meanwhile, AUD/USD gains 0.18% to 0.7132 at the time of writing following upbeat comments from RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle. According to his statement, labour markets in Australia have been surprising strong as leading indicators of employment remains solid. Besides that, he also stated that central bank can lower policy rate if needed, however, still expect a decent growth in the economy. Thus, the upbeat remarks have boosted market confidence in Aussie, thus pushing the price higher as the Aussie are currently in demand.
As for commodities market, crude oil price have gave up part of its gains and slip 0.19% to $64.09 per barrel as of writing following increased inventories. According to reports from American Petroleum Institute (API), crude inventory build for the week have increased 4.091 million, higher than previous reading which is 2.963 million. However, crude oil sentiment remains solid in overall as market remains positive following ongoing OPEC tightening supply movement and sanction against Iran and Venezuela continue to support the demand for the commodity. Market will focus on upcoming data such as further inventories data from EIA to determine further direction. On the other hand, gold price edge higher 0.05% to $1302.45 a troy ounce following weakening dollar amid potential new global dispute.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:45 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
20:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
02:00 (11th) USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (MoM) (Feb) | 0.5% | 0.2% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb) | 0.8% | 0.2% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Deposit Facility Rate | -0.40% | – | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision | 0.00% | – | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 7.238M | 2.294M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support near 96.50. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60
Support level: 96.50, 96.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat after rebounding from its lower levels. Due to lack of signal from the MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 1.3085 or below the support level 1.3000 is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3085, 1.3180
Support level: 1.3000, 1.2915
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level 1.1290. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1250.
Resistance level: 1.1290, 1.1340
Support level: 1.1250, 1.1215
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level 110.95. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower back to the support level 100.95.
Resistance level: 111.45, 112.00
Support level: 110.95, 110.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remained traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from the support level 0.7115. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7150.
Resistance level: 0.7150, 0.7190
Support level: 0.7115, 0.7070
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the 20 MA-line (green). MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6775.
Resistance level: 0.6775, 0.6820
Support level: 0.6730, 0.6685
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level of 1.3290. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3350.
Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3400
Support level: 1.3290, 1.3245
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remained traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from the support level 0.9980. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the top level of the channel at 1.0010.
Resistance level: 1.0010, 1.0040
Support level: 0.9980, 0.9950
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 63.95. MACD which illustrate negative divergence signal and the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 64.80, 66.20
Support level: 63.95, 63.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1305.50. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its retracement towards the support level 1299.50.
Resistance level: 1305.50, 1315.00
Support level: 1299.50, 1293.00