10 April 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Trump slaps European Union with tariffs.
US dollar extended its losses on Tuesday following higher demand for safe-haven assets due to escalating trade tension between US and EU. US President Donald Trump announced on yesterday that Washington would impose tariffs upon $11 billion worth of products from the European Union, a day after US trade officials proposed a list of products that will be targeted as part of ongoing aircraft dispute. The dispute over government subsidies given to Boeing and European rival Airbus was tied up in ligation since 2004. However, World Trade Organization announced last May that EU subsidies to Airbus are illegal. Following tariff announcement from the US, EU said that it will stand ready to launch countermeasures against the measure, heightening global trade tension into the next level. Likewise, US dollar received additional bearish pressure following weaker-than-expected job openings as reported by JOLTs. Safe-haven demand was also being fueled further after International Monetary Fund (IMF) cuts its global growth outlook to the lowest level since the financial crisis. Bearish outlook while coupled with more trade disputes has further soured market sentiment, raising the appeal of safe-haven towards traders. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.03% to 96.57 while pair of USD/JPY slumped 0.05% to 111.16.
On the other hand, crude oil price slipped 0.17% to $64.06 per barrel this morning. Oil futures took a dip on yesterday following President Donald Trump’s latest barrage on trade, enacting tariffs upon $11 billion EU goods. Such action may dial down the economic growth momentum in the long-run, which in return may reduce the amount of crude oil being demanded. Likewise, oil prices received further pressure after Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the current oil price is well suited towards Moscow, reducing market expectation for an extension of oil-production cuts by May this year. Otherwise, gold price ticked up 0.02% to $1,304.34 a troy ounce following higher risk aversion in the financial market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:45 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
20:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
02:00 (11th) USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (MoM) (Feb) | 0.5% | 0.2% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb) | 0.8% | 0.2% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Deposit Facility Rate | -0.40% | – | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision | 0.00% | – | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 7.238M | 2.294M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support near 96.50. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40
Support level: 96.50, 95.95
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1.3100. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 1.3015.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3155
Support level: 1.3015, 1.2965
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior closure below the support level near 1.1270. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of support near 1.1245.
Resistance level: 1.1270, 1.1300
Support level: 1.1245, 1.1210
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 111.00. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target at 111.00.
Resistance level: 111.45, 111.75
Support level: 111.00, 110.50
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound near the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the target of 0.7130.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7150
Support level: 0.7115, 0.7090
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 0.6795 in mid-term.
Resistance level: 0.6795, 0.6830
Support level: 0.6745, 0.6700
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level of 1.3300. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, toward the direction of 1.3340.
Resistance level: 1.3340, 1.3370
Support level: 1.3300, 1.3270
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded flat near the support level of 0.9995. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after a successful closure below the target of 0.9995.
Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0070
Support level: 0.9995, 0.9945
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 63.70. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its prices to advance further up after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 64.65, 66.00
Support level: 63.70, 62.80
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical corrections.
Resistance level: 1311.40, 1321.00
Support level: 1302.50, 1295.65