11 April 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar-bull fails over a siege by other major currencies.
Dollar index fell 0.13% against a basket of major currencies to 89.25 as of writing despite the release of optimistic producer inflation data following pressures by a surge in other major currencies. Overnight, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was released by the Labor Department showing an actual reading with 0.3% increase, much better than the economists’ forecast for 0.1% growth. According to Bank of Montreal, the data has reflected a healthy price pressure at the producer level, thus they will wait for Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be released due tonight to determine if increasing input costs were passed onto consumers. Nonetheless, the upbeat economic data has failed to lift the Greenback following a rise in other currencies especially Pound Sterling and the Loonie. GBP/USD rose 0.32% to $1.4175 following an optimistic remark made by BoE monetary policy committee member Ian McCafferty that UK interest rates should be increased again in near term without delay. In addition, USD/CAD plunged 0.71% to C$ 1.2598 prior to a strong upsurge in oil prices and ongoing outlooks that a new North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) deal will be announced sooner on 13th April.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rallied 3.30% to its 2-week highs, currently standing at $65.30 per barrel following rising geopolitical tensions between U.S. and Syria that could lead to supply disruptions in the Middle East. Likewise, gold price rose 0.42% to $1342.33 a troy ounce following a fall in the Greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
02:00 (Thu) USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:30 | AUD – Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Apr) | 0.2% | – | -0.6% |
| 09:30 | CNY – CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| 09:30 | CNY – PPI (YoY) (Mar) | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| 16:30 | GBP – Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) | 1.3% | 0.5% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Trade Balance (Feb) | -12.33B | -11.90B | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -4.617M | 0.246M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | -1.116M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher within an ascending wedge after breaking resistance level at 1.4160. However, negative divergence as portrays by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to extend its losses towards its previous high.
Resistance level: 1.4190, 1.4240
Support level: 1.4160, 1.4120
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher within an ascending channel prior breaking resistance level at 1.2350. However, death-cross as formed by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to extend its losses if breakout at the 50.0 Fibonacci level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.2380, 1.2400
Support level: 1.2350, 1.2330
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower prior retracement from trend line of ascending channel. Death-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would indicate the pair to advance its losses towards the support level at 107.00.
Resistance level: 107.50, 107.90
Support level: 107.00, 106.70
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 65.85. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the commodity price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower towards its previous high.
Resistance level: 65.85, 66.30
Support level: 65.30, 64.70
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 1342.80. Diminishing bullish momentum as displayed by MACD histogram would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its losses if breakout at the trend line is successful.
Resistance level: 1342.80, 1346.90
Support level: 1337.70, 1334.90