11 April 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar pressured by poor sentiment; euro pared losses.
Dollar index which measures its strength against a basket of six major currencies inched lower by 0.02% to 96.48 ahead of European trading session while remain pressured by FOMC meeting minutes which reaffirmation of the Fed’s previous dovish stance on Wednesday. In the meeting minutes, Fed decided to keep rate hike on pause throughout this year with the poor economic outlook. Further pressuring the dollar was a lower than expected CPI reading on Tuesday which provide further confirmation in the slowdown of US economic activity. While the news from FOMC are being digested, investors now focus on key economic data from China regarding their trade figures and first quarter growth to further gauge market sentiment. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD rose 0.06% to 1.1280 as of writing amid Brexit extension and ECB’s continuous ultra-loose monetary policy. ECB President Mario Draghi highlighted the growing risks of the euro zone economy along with a set of weak economic data and noted that the bank will consider the impact of its negative rates as well as the new Targeted Longer-term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO) and to make any adjustments accordingly to help support its economy.
As for commodities, crude oil price depreciates by 0.28% to $64.25 per barrel amid build up in crude’s inventory as well as pressure from Russia’s comment on crude oil price. According to Russian official Kirill Dmitriev, situation in oil market are improving and the price reached a suitable level for Russia. Thus, they might consider to decide on abandoning its production cut during the OPEC meeting in June. Likewise, gold price fell by 0.07% to $1,307.00 a troy ounce due higher risk appetite in the market amid Brexit positive developments.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:00 CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
Tentative CrudeOIL OPEC Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 96.45. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60
Support level: 96.50, 96.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3185.
Resistance level: 1.3185, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3045, 1.2960
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1275. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the support level 1.1245.
Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1325
Support level: 1.1245, 1.1215
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from support level 110.95. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 111.30.
Resistance level: 111.30, 111.75
Support level: 110.95, 110.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.7155. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.7190, 0.7225
Support level: 0.7155, 0.7130
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 0.6770. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6725.
Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6815
Support level: 0.6725, 0.6680
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from its low levels. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3365.
Resistance level: 1.3365, 1.3460
Support level: 1.3295, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.0025. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1.0000.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0055
Support level: 1.0000, 0.9965
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 64.60. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 62.75.
Resistance level: 64.60, 65.90
Support level: 62.75, 61.80
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1310.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its retracement towards the support level 1293.55.
Resistance level: 1310.70, 1323.10
Support level: 1293.55, 1287.00