11 April 2019 Morning Session Analysis
No rate hike for the year?
Greenback fell against other major currencies following the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes which portrays dovishness among majority of policymakers. The dollar index was quoted down 0.10% to 96.47 as of writing. According to the minutes, majority of policymakers expecting the interest rates to remain steady for the year. In terms of economy however, Fed forecasted that the US real GDP growth may slow down “markedly” for the first quarter due to “softening in growth of both consumer spending and business investment”. However, they expect economic activity to rebound in the second quarter but expecting its GDP growth rate to be generally slower pace when compared to 2018. In general, the meeting minutes met eye-to-eye with investors expectation whereby significant recessive risk in the market would force Federal Reserve to keep interest rate at a low level for longer period of time. For the time being, market participants would continue to scrutinize upon US economic data in order to gain more signals. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD rose 0.02% to 1.3093 during Asian trading session. According to reports, European Union leaders have offered to delay Brexit until 31st October with a summit in June for a review on the current Brexit situation. The cut off in October means that the UK will leave EU before the next EU Commission takes the office, limiting their entanglement in the next phase of European business.
As for commodities, crude oil price depreciates by 0.16% to $64.28 per barrel. Oil prices receives some bearish pressure after EIA reported a large build up in crude inventories by 7.03 million barrels, missing economist forecast for a reduction of 2.3 million barrels. On the other hand, gold price extended gains by 0.03% to $1,308.53 a troy ounce due to weaker dollar and rising risk in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:00 CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
Tentative CrudeOIL OPEC Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:30 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior closure below the support level at 96.50. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses, towards the direction of 95.95.
Resistance level: 96.50, 97.00
Support level: 95.95, 95.65
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1.3100. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 1.3100.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3155
Support level: 1.3015, 1.2965
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1.1275. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up after closing above the target of 1.1275.
Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1300
Support level: 1.1255, 1.1230
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.45
Support level: 110.50, 110.00
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7180, 0.7200
Support level: 0.7150, 0.7130
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the MA line.
Resistance level: 0.6795, 0.6830
Support level: 0.6745, 0.6700
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 1.3300.
Resistance level: 1.3340, 1.3370
Support level: 1.3300, 1.3270
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower levels. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0070
Support level: 0.9995, 0.9945
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 64.65. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 64.65, 66.00
Support level: 63.70, 62.80
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1311.40, 1321.00
Support level: 1302.50, 1295.65