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11 May 2017                       Daily Analysis


Kiwi nosedive while RBNZ liberates dovish feathers.

New Zealand dollar plunged sharply on Thursday after central bank maintain their interest rates at a record low of 1.75% while signaling a rather neutral stance on their monetary policy. Pairing of NZD/USD fell 1.64%, touching eleven-months low of $0.6815 this morning. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBZ) delivered a rather surprising dovish stance, highlighting numerous uncertainties regarding trade protectionism while long-term inflationary pressure remains lukewarm. “Statement released by the RBNZ gave clear signal that their monetary policy is set to remain on hold for a considerable amount of time and it has no interest in pre-empting policy tightening anytime soon,” said financial analyst from ANZ Bank. Otherwise, the greenback was held steady at 99.47 while investors awaits for latest US inflation and retail sales reading that will be released tomorrow. Overnight, US dollar managed to defend its prior gains following a series of hawkish comments from several Fed officials which has lifted overall prospect for an interest rate hike in June.


Peering into the commodities market, crude oil price rose in Asia while last seen at $47.42 per barrel following an upbeat report on US crude inventories. According to Energy Information Administration, US crude inventories for the week ended May 3rd was fell by 5.25 million barrels, exceeding expectations of a draw of 1.79 million barrels. Subsequently, gold price was up 024% to $1,220.24 as geopolitical risk surrounding North Korea returns.


Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event



Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

05:00                       NZD                     RBNZ Rate Statement

06:00                       NZD                     RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks

09:10                       NZD                     RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks

19:00                       GBP                     BoE Inflation Report

19:00                       GBP                    BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

Tentative                 Crude Oil             OPEC Monthly Report



Today’s Highlight Economy Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
05:00 NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.75% 1.75%
16:30 GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar) -0.1% -0.2%
19:00 GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (May) 0.25% 0.25%
20:30 USD – PPI (MoM) (Apr) -0.1% 0.2%




GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within an upward channel while currently testing at the bottom level of the channel. A breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards. Otherwise, a rebound would suggest GBPUSD to be traded higher within the channel thereafter.


Resistance level: 1.3000, 1.3075

Support level: 1.2860, 1.2755




EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD remains traded within an upward channel while recently retraced from the resistance level of 1.1020. A closure below the strong support level of 1.0860 will suggest EURUSD to advance further down, towards the lower level of the upward channel.


Resistance level: 1.0945, 1.1020

Support level: 1.0860, 1.0760




NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD has recently broke out from the bottom of upward trend line, suggesting a change in trend direction to move further downwards. As the downward signal line from MACD histogram continues to expand downwards, a closure below the support level of 0.6815 would suggest NZDUSD to extend its losses.


Resistance level: 0.6835, 0.6860

Support level: 0.6185, 0.6790




USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the recent high at 114.35. As the MACD indicator begins to hover outside of upward momentum, USDJPY is expected to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction still suggests USDJPY to extend its upward momentum.


Resistance level: 114.35, 114.70

Support level: 114.00, 113.60




CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended its gains following prior rebound from the support level of 46.10 while closing above the 60-moving average line (green). As the MACD histogram continues to illustrate upward momentum, a successful closure above the resistance level of 47.55 would suggest crude oil price to move further upwards.


Resistance level: 47.55, 48.75

Support level: 46.10, 43.75




GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1224.65. However, as the MACD indicator continues to drift outside of downward momentum, gold price may extend its technical retracement and to be traded higher in short-term. Long-term trend direction still suggests gold price to move further downwards as both MA line continues to expand downwards.


Resistance level: 1224.65, 1236.45

Support level: 1214.10, 1202.30