11 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar-bull sedated, will Yellen resuscitate?
Greenback’s advance against other major peers slowed on Tuesday while majority of market participants awaits highly anticipated testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen due later this week. The dollar index ticked up 0.07% to 95.80 during early Asian trading hours. Analyst postulate that the next cue for the currency market will be coming from Fed’s Yellen, whereby dollar-bulls will keep an eye if she retains her hawkish view following last Friday’s robust US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Prior to this, the market has been casting doubts on the Fed’s ability to follow through with a third rate hike by year end as recent US data showed a slowdown in inflationary pressure and economic activity. On the other hand, pound sterling was held steady at around $1.2877 following overnight’s sell-off after a series of lackluster data catalyzes queries over the Bank of England’s recent summon to increase interest rate sooner. BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent will be giving his speech later in the day which may provide further clarity on central bank’s policy prospects.
As for commodities, crude oil price pared its losses by 0.63% to $44.68 while investors will be looking forward for American Petroleum Institute’s stockpile report for further market signal. Otherwise, gold price seesawed around $1,212.60 as investors awaits Yellen’s testimony due this Wednesday and Thursday for further rate hike indication.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
19:00 GBP BoE MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – NAB Business Confidence (Jun) | 7 | – | 9 |
| 20:15 | CAD – Housing Starts (Jun) | 194.7K | 200.0K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (May) | 6.044M | 5.950M | – |
| 04:30 | Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -5.760M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD were thinly traded following prior extension of losses due to the formation of death cross by both MA lines. A successful closure below the strong support level of 1.2860 would suggest GBPUSD to extend its losses.
Resistance level: 1.2925, 1.2970
Support level: 1.2860, 1.2800
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remained traded within an ascending triangle while recently closed below the 20-moving average line (red). The closure suggests EURUSD to skew towards downside bias and move further down, towards the support level at 1.1385.
Resistance level: 1.1440, 1.1480
Support level: 1.1385, 1.1330
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY were traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance level at 114.25. MACD indicator which continues to drift outside of upward momentum suggests USDJPY to continue its oscillation in between 113.95 and 114.25 in short-term. Otherwise, long-term trend direction suggests USDJPY to extend its uptrend after closing above the level of 114.25.
Resistance level: 114.25, 114.55
Support level: 113.95, 113.65
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a range of 43.75 and 44.65 while currently testing at the top level. A successful closure above this level would signal a change in trend direction to move further upwards. Otherwise, a retrace would suggest crude oil price to extend its oscillation within the trading range.
Resistance level: 44.65, 45.00
Support level: 44.15, 43.75
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price were traded within the downward channel while recently retraced prior to the 20-moving average line (red). Stochastic Oscillator which begins to illustrate retracement signal from the overbought level suggests gold price to extend its downward momentum towards the support level of 1207.00.
Resistance level: 1218.00, 1230.00
Support level: 1207.00, 1197.00