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11 August 2022                  Morning Session Analysis

US Dollar dived as inflation pressure soften.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currencies slumped on yesterday after the CPI data has been unleashed. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY for July notched down from the previous reading of 9.1% to 8.5%, lower than the market forecast of 8.7%. Besides, the US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM, which excluding food and energy price, has posted at the reading of 0.3% while it was lower than the consensus expectation of 0.5%. The lower-than-expected inflationary data has showed that the inflation risk in the US has reached its peak and easing. Thus, it might indicate that the less aggressive rate hikes from Fed would be implemented. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the possibility of 50 basis point rate hike is about 57.5% while the chance of 75 basis point rate increase has reduced to 42.5%. As of writing, the Dollar Index depreciated by 1.08% to 105.10.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price dropped by 0.55% to $91.42 per barrel as of writing. Nonetheless, the oil price received bullish momentum during the overnight trading session amid the slump of US Dollar. On the other hand, the gold price eased by 0.39% to $1791.11 per troy ounce as of writing. Though, the trend of gold price remained bullish amid the rising tensions between US and China.

 

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   JPY                                          Japan – Mountain Day

 

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 260K 263K
20:30 USD – PPI (MoM) (Jul) 1.10% 0.30%

 

 

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses.

 

Resistance level: 105.25, 106.30

Support level: 104.45, 103.60

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2270, 1.2345

Support level: 1.2170, 1.2070

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses.

 

Resistance level: 1.0315, 1.0385

Support level: 1.0235, 1.0160

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses.

 

Resistance level: 133.40, 134.90

Support level: 131.65, 129.35

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.7145, 0.7220

Support level: 0.7075, 0.7005

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains.

 

Resistance level: 0.6465, 0.6555

Support level: 0.6355, 0.6270

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses.

 

Resistance level: 1.2825, 1.2935

Support level: 1.2700, 1.2615

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level. However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9455, 0.9520

Support level: 0.9380, 0.9300

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses.

 

Resistance level: 91.50, 93.25

Support level: 89.75, 87.85

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1807.65, 1836.10

Support level: 1778.80, 1756.95