11 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar relinquished as Brexit turns optimistic.
US dollar fells against other major currencies on yesterday after being pressured by a strong rebound in the Euro and Pound Sterling over the backdrop of optimistic Brexit outcome. Both Euro and Sterling extended its gains for the past few days as Brexit negotiators continue to hint positive progress on the ongoing discussion of Brexit deal. EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier commented that Britain and Brussels have agreed on a majority of withdrawal agreement ahead of EU Summit next week. Such signal has eased investors fear that Britain may leave EU next March without a trade agreement. Otherwise, yesterday’s the release of mixed data on wholesale inflation from the US has failed to cap greenback downside momentum. According to US Labor Department, while Producer Price Index came in as expected with the reading of 0.2% for month-over-month comparison, the data only rose to 2.6% for year-over-year comparison, missing economist forecast for a 2.8% increase. As of writing, dollar index depreciates by 0.09% to 95.02, GBP/USD rose 0.12% to 1.3210 while EUR/USD was up 0.10% to 1.1533.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was down 0.07%, last seen around $72.52 as of writing. The commodity received significant bearish pressure on yesterday after IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast which may reflect significant impact over crude oil demand in the global production sector. Otherwise, gold price tacks up 0.02% to $1,194.62 a troy ounce following weaker dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:20 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 207K | 206K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Aug) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 23:00 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 7.975M | 2.620M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses after breaking the threshold of 95.00.
Resistance level: 95.50, 96.00
Support level: 95.00, 94.65
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains towards the target of 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3515
Support level: 1.3080, 1.2925
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the 60-MA line and resistance of 1.1550. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance at 1.1550.
Resistance level: 1.1550, 1.1605
Support level: 1.1495, 1.1460
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level of 112.15.
Resistance level: 112.70, 113.05
Support level: 112.15, 111.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance level at 0.7130. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level of 0.7045.
Resistance level: 0.7090, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7045, 0.7000
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6540
Support level: 0.6450, 0.6430
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance at 1.3050.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3100
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2955
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9885. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9885, 0.9850
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level of the channel.
Resistance level: 73.70, 75.00
Support level: 72.00, 70.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance of 1192.00. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1202.00, 1210.60
Support level: 1192.00, 1184.00