12 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
NAB disappoints Aussie, dollar remains in red.
Dollar remains in struggle following market continue to react towards recent US data release due to lack of fresh catalyst. Despite recent US retails sales provide an unexpected higher than expected reading, a downward revision to December’s sharp decline have failed to entice investor’s appeal to bid on the greenback’s demand. Besides that, recent US-Sino trade talk have turn south as both nations have cancelled trade meeting plans and continue to battle over a trade deal that would be fair and protecting the interest of its own country. The ongoing unresolved difference between two economic powerhouses increasing market’s concerns, thus limiting the upside for the greenback. Dollar index slumped 0.15% to 96.96 as of writing. Meanwhile, AUDUSD also slips 0.03% to 0.7066 at the time of writing following a disappointing release by National Australia Bank (NAB). According to NAB, both business conditions and confidence index missed economist expectations which indicates a clear weakness in its business conditions and economic outlook. The weak data may place higher pressure upon RBA to decrease its rate twice for this year, thus dragging the Aussie sentiment.
In the commodities market, crude oil price gained 0.65% to $57.11 per barrel as OPEC’s supply cuts continue to lift oil investors’ confidence. Despite economic headwind could pose downside risk to crude oil, continuous glut cut by OPEC and its allies, added with healthy demand as expected marine diesel usage starting next year were celebrated by the market, bidding for the crude. On the other hand, gold price edge higher 0.15% to 1295.15 as of writing following ongoing dollar weakness which dragged by recent economic data releases.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
03:00 (13hb) GBP UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – GDP (MoM) (Jan) | -0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) | -0.7% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 04:30
(13hb) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 7.290M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 97.20. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 96.70.
Resistance level: 97.20, 97.60
Support level: 96.70, 96.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3245. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3180.
Resistance level: 1.3245, 1.3345
Support level: 1.3180, 1.3070
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1260. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 1.1260.
Resistance level: 1.1260, 1.1290
Support level: 1.1220, 1.1180
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 111.15. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 111.50.
Resistance level: 111.50, 112.00
Support level: 111.15, 110.90
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7070. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7070, 0.7105
Support level: 0.7005, 0.6935
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6845. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.6845.
Resistance level: 0.6845, 0.6875
Support level: 0.6805, 0.6760
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3410. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the next support level at 1.3360.
Resistance level: 1.3410, 1.3460
Support level: 1.3360, 1.3320
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 1.0120.
Resistance level: 1.0120, 1.0160
Support level: 1.0090, 1.0055
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 56.80. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 57.75.
Resistance level: 57.75, 58.85
Support level: 56.80, 55.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher while currently testing the downward trend line. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breakout the downward trend line.
Resistance level: 1296.90, 1305.40
Support level: 1283.90, 1266.35