12 April 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback rebounds, but for how long?
US dollar rebounds sharply on yesterday following optimistic wholesale inflation data and jobless claims which helped to ease investors’ concerns over Federal Reserve interest rate cut possibility. The dollar index was quoted up 0.23% to 96.75 against six major currencies. According to US Labor Department, Core Producer Price Index for the month of March rose by 0.3%, beating economists’ forecast for a rise of 0.2%. In addition, last week’s Initial Jobless Claims dropped by 8,000 individuals to a total of only 196,000, significantly lower than forecast for a rise up to 211,000. Both reports were released a day after Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes shows that majority of policymakers expected the central bank to held off from raising interest rates further for the year 2019. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD pared some losses by 0.09% to 1.1260 during Asian trading session. On yesterday, euro received tremendous bearish pressure following optimistic economic data from the US. Likewise, overall sentiment towards the EU zone is tilted towards bearish following gloomy economic outlook and sentiment given by the European Central Bank prior.
As for commodities, crude oil price depreciates by 0.06% to $63.62 per barrel. Oil prices extended its losses after International Energy Agency noted that demand is a “very important” factor in oil market rebalancing and it is being jeopardized by higher risk of diminishing economic growth. Otherwise, gold price was down 0.01% to $1,292.54 a troy ounce following a sharp rebound in US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) | 1.4% | -0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (Mar) | 0.6% | 0.4% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr) | 98.4 | 98.1 | – |
| 01:00
(13th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 831 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the direction of 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40
Support level: 96.50, 95.95
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance near 1.3110. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.3015.
Resistance level: 1.3110, 1.3155
Support level: 1.3015, 1.2965
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to experience short-term correction following a successful rebound from the bottom.
Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1300
Support level: 1.1255, 1.1230
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 111.75.
Resistance level: 111.75, 112.20
Support level: 111.45, 111.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the upper level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.7115.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7150
Support level: 0.7115, 0.7090
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 0.6720. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6720.
Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6765
Support level: 0.6720, 0.6700
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the mid-level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3400.
Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3435
Support level: 1.3370, 1.3340
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 0.9995. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 1.0040.
Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0070
Support level: 0.9995, 0.9945
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term after closing above 63.70.
Resistance level: 63.70, 64.65
Support level: 62.80, 61.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout from the support of 1295.65. MACD which illustrate bearish signal may suggests its prices to extend its losses in mid-term, towards the lower level of the downward channel.
Resistance level: 1295.65, 1302.50
Support level: 1284.15, 1275.30